Could Prime Minister Boris Johnson break up the UK?

This topic contains 1,007 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by Avatar Brydo 1 week, 5 days ago.

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  • #83405 Reply
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    Brydo
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    The Scottish Conservative (and Unionist) party has enjoyed something of resurgence in recent years under the energetic leadership of Ruth Davidson.

    The party’s opponents are convinced that Boris Johnson as prime minister could put an end to all that – and could even put an end to the union between Scotland the rest of the UK.

    It’s true that Mr Johnson could hardly be more different from the down to earth, plain speaking and Remain-voting Ms Davidson. The two are not friends and have vehemently disagreed before.

    Some observers like to speculate that Boris will appear to Scottish voters to be the very epitome of the upper-class English ruling caste that Scots so dislike. But policy may well prove to be more important than personality.

    Mr Johnson appeared to have a weak grasp of the dynamics of devolution when he proposed tax changes that take no account of the fact that income tax rates in Scotland are set by the Scottish Parliament.

    But since then he has promised Scottish Tory MPs he will set up a “union unit” inside No 10 to check every policy. If he knows what he doesn’t know, then maybe he can avoid these gaffes as PM.

    It’s Brexit that may be his undoing, in so many ways. In Remain-voting Scotland, his problem is that the idea of a no deal Brexit is far less palatable than it is in the rest of the UK. The harder the Brexit Boris delivers, the more the Tory party in Scotland could suffer.

    If Prime Minister Johnson [he will officially take on the role this Wednesday] pursues a Brexit policy at odds with what most voters in Scotland would like to see, then it’s possible they may change their minds about whether remaining part of the UK is in their best interests. Some recent polling evidence suggests as many as 60% of voters could vote “yes” to independence if we leave the EU with no deal.

    In the end it may not be the precise details of any Brexit deal that stokes desire for independence – or indeed the character of any individual politician – but a sense that Scotland has different aspirations from the rest of the UK, which can’t be reconciled within the current union.

    If Mr Johnson wants to keep the kingdom united, he will need to take care not fan those flames.

    The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe

Viewing 25 replies - 626 through 650 (of 1,007 total)
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  • #88154 Reply
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    Mike 700
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    Being a minority government is immaterial Pops!

    The PM can write a letter to the EU , worded in such a way as to request an extension and thereby go along with ‘the law’ as you put it, but which he will make absolutely clear can be revoked if ,no , let’s be positive, not if, ‘when ‘ he wins a Majority at a General Election.

    Can you really see the EU replying with a yes, because they know that there is every chance of him winning an election, and them thereby shooting themselves in the foot, all 27 feet?

    His platform will clearly be (either before or after 31 October) that he still stands for taking us out of the EU, but Labour, the LiDems and the SNP prevented it , and frankly I think that playing the ‘blame game’ will get him a substantial majority

    The EU are just starting to realise that they will get no deal if they don’t back down- they have already agreed that this will cost individual states huge sums and job losses etc etc, with massive bailouts forecast- it has been a mistake all along to promote that the UK will be the only loser in a no deal.

    So, it is likely that BoJo will get a deal ( of sorts ,admittedly ) which will allow trade talks etc to begin.

    #88160 Reply
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    Wigwam
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    But Mike, he needs parliament to approve any deal.  Whatever deal Johnson offers post GE, labour and the Libdems have set themselves against it and if he will almost certainly have a few Brexit party MPs to contend with too.

    #88161 Reply
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    fwippers
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    I agree the Brits are normally mild mannered, but Brexit betrayal will be a different ball game altogether. I do see a deal however, because despite the mood music the EU are scared.

    #88163 Reply
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    Mike 700
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    WW

    Agreed , but as I indicated ‘post GE ‘ BoJo is likely to have a majority sufficient to change/revoke the Benn ‘Law’, because the ‘ blame game’ will likely wipe out Labour, if not the LibDems and the SNP?

    So all he has to do, in the meantime, is obey the instruction to request an extension, which he will do, but there is absolutely nothing stopping him at the same time giving notice to the EU that he will repeal the Benn law and withdraw the extension request  post GE?

    No one can predict the outcome of a GE, but can you really see all 27 states of the EU each agreeing to an extension, only potentially to have it changed in a couple of weeks – I don’t think that they will agree frankly!

    This Is assuming that he wins a GE ,but can you really see him losing the blame game?

    Kinnock jr. Reckons that 30-50 Labour MP’s will support a deal, before the deadline anyway, so all sorts of combinations can come into play.

    So, by doing it this way, he complies with Parliament’s instructions, and I f the EU say ‘no thanks’, what can the unholy alliance do?

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatar Mike 700.
    #88170 Reply
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    fwippers
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    A chaotic Labour conference awaits with front bench opening opposing Corbyn. I wonder if BJ has waited for the zpriver card to produce a winning hand?

    #88174 Reply
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    Brydo

    Trying to predict what will happen over the next few months is a bit of a fools game, trying to predict what will happen next week is hard enough.

    All we can do is look at the facts as they stand.

    BJ has no majority,

    he has had six votes go against him in his first weeks of office,

    he is making all the right noises with regards to an early GE,

    he has to ask for a 3 month extension unless he can get a deal

    he has given a bit of momentum to Brexit with his hard Brexit stance

    Labour are in an absolute mess

    Lib dems and SNP are doing well in the polls

    Tories are favourites, in recent polls, to have the largest number of MPs after the next GE

    These are some of the facts we know.

    If the court case goes against him next week (I dont think it will) where do we go from there, should he resign?

     

    #88183 Reply
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    POPS
    Moderator

    Mike 700 …. It’s not up to Boris mathematically.

    If BJ does what you say he might in your post, then what’s to stop the cross party opposition from calling a vote of no confidence and agreeing a fixed term Prime Minister from among their ranks. They will then have  (in theory) until 2022 to either repeal article 50 or agree a suitable leave deal, which would be irrevocably signed and sealed with an impotent minority conservative party sat on the sidelines.

    The idea of cross party opposition staying together over an extended period is problematical, but they might just be sufficiently united by their common hatred of Johnson, Cummings and the ERG group at least for long enough to get the job done.

    Two party politics has shown itself to be so deeply flawed by both extreme ideology and personal ambition that we may have to get used to the idea of consensus politics beginning to fill an ugly divide. It’s time to return to the “broad church” style of government that most MP’s support, and return the extremists to their marginalised little cohorts.

     

    #88186 Reply
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    Wigwam
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    I know there’s no logic in politics but – If the government lost a vote of no confidence, Johnson could call for a GE. If it was then refused, that would show there was confidence in the government…

    #88189 Reply
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    fwippers
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    So the EU say we will have a hard border with a WTO exit. Good luck with building that! Politicians all over Europe are fast becoming a laughing stock. And Jo Swindon is now being called a dictator, with good reason. BJ is being described as untrustworthy and Corbyn is simply inept. Farage is looking more and more the credible option, the best option, perhaps the only option.

    #88192 Reply
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    POPS
    Moderator

    Farage !!!!!!

    Tell me you’re not serious fwipperie.

    #88193 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    Here’s a question. Would you prefer Farage or Corbyn as PM and why?

    #88194 Reply
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    Brydo

    Neither, and Farage has no chance.

    #88196 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    They neither have a chance. I’m wondering who would do the most harm.

    #88197 Reply
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    Brydo

    Well corbyn does have a chance but it’s unlikely, Farage is not a member of Parliament. His party have no MPs so how this conversation even started is beyond me.

    Which one would cause most harm, Corbyn to the economy, Farage to society.

    #88198 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    Yes of course, it’s a nonsense discussion Brydo but it’s a Sunday and I’m hiding from the grandchildren..

    #88199 Reply
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    Brydo

    Just thinking about it we’ve spoken nonsense regularly on this thread so probably a valid post lol.

    Had the grandkids yesterday so I know your situation well.

    #88200 Reply
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    fwippers
    Participant

    I’m rarely serious but stranger things have happened. BJ knows he has to deliver Brexit by Oct 31st and a “proper” Brexit. I am looking forward to a coffee, cake and a read of the Sunday papers. Farage as PM, very unlikely. But MP Farage with 50-100 Brexit Party  MP’s, quite possible depending on events over the next 39 days.

    #88201 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    Have a read here, fwipperie. More useful insight than the Sundays, I think:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnsons-choice-shift-for-a-brexit-deal-or-go?ref=hpsplash

    #88205 Reply
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    Brydo

    Fwipperie, So we now have a hard, soft, no and proper Brexits.

    Not sure what a proper Brexit is.

     

    #88206 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    If Brexit is the process by which the UK regains its independence from the EU by exiting the EU, the test is which version of Brexit guarantees that, not what it’s called – that’s just flimflam.

    #88207 Reply
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    Brydo

    How would you identify it then, as independence means different things to different people.

    #88208 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    Independent: Not being dependent.  So having no obligation as a nation to any other nation or supra-national body, except by democratic choice.  Our relationship with the EU did not come about by democratic choice, because the body we joined all those years ago was a different beast  Come to that our membership of UNO is the same.  It is not what we joined.

    #88209 Reply
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    fwippers
    Participant

    The conversations here and on previous threads us fascinating but really should not be taking place as we have been let down by parliament.

    #88210 Reply
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    Wigwam
    Participant

    What do you propose fwipperie?

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Avatar Wigwam.
    #88212 Reply
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    Brydo

    So in reality what does that look like, a hard, soft or proper Brexit.

Viewing 25 replies - 626 through 650 (of 1,007 total)
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