March 2, 2020 at 2:59 pm #108156
There is a lot of knowledge amongst us, I exclude myself.
The COVID 19 is dominating the news:
How worried should we be?
Will this be Spanish flu proportions or just another contained outbreak as SARS and MERS were?
Oh – and when will we start to see ‘Just in time’ manufacturing suffer?
November 25, 2020 at 11:27 am #130434gothitjulieParticipant
That’s an interesting interpretation Gothitjulie. So if this is true: ” Improvised homemade face masks may be used to help protect those who could potentially, for example, be at occupational risk from close or frequent contact with symptomatic patients. However, these masks would provide the wearers little protection from microorganisms from others persons who are infected with respiratory diseases. As a result, we would not recommend the use of homemade face masks as a method of reducing transmission of infection from aerosols.” Then, if they don’t reduce transmission of infection from aerosols, what do they do? (assuming the wearer is not at occupational risk from close or frequent contact with symptomatic people)? In other words if we go about maintaining the prescribed 2 metres from strangers?
The main protection is from reducing the transmission from the infected to the non-infected, the 2 metres is again another part of that, these measures add up to reduce the transmission. By the infected we mean those who are not showing outward signs plus those who are.
Remember back to the first lockdown, people walked around supermarkets mainly without masks yet kept their distance & washed their hands more. This worked pretty well & transmission was massively reduced by all the measures working together. Those few of us who wore the masks & nitrile gloves just added a bit more protection.
I’m not sure how well you understand the slopes of the graphs that show infections over time, but you probably will have noticed the different angle of the slope of those graphs between the lead up to the first & second lockdowns, the second increase in infections had a shallower line. Now that shallower line shows a reduced rate of infection, the reasons being some immunity in the population, plus, other measures taken, which will incluse a little bit for the masks, a little bit for the distancing, a little bit for washing the hands, etc. Now, think forwards, if mass vaccination has an effect then the next time the virus tries to spread, that slope may be so shallow as to be flat or headed down, that’s where we want to be by Easter.November 25, 2020 at 11:30 am #130435
So Google is your belief system, wmc? I haven’t seen anything that suggests that someone who is pro free market rejects the idea of foreign aid. Perhaps you can help me there.November 25, 2020 at 11:36 am #130437
My problem gothitjulie is as you say “a little bit for masks”. What I see as a disproportionate imposition for minimal effect.November 25, 2020 at 12:13 pm #130446
So Google is your belief system, wmc? I haven’t seen anything that suggests that someone who is pro free market rejects the idea of foreign aid. Perhaps you can help me there.
No, my belief system is well my belief system. The interweb is a place to go to read a collection of postings on a subject of my choice.
Just like this piece on Foreign Aid by that group of Libertarians you talk of, The American Institute for Economic Research.November 25, 2020 at 12:24 pm #130451
Will youpost a link to the article you’re referring to please, wmc?November 25, 2020 at 2:48 pm #130475
Impact of false-positives and false-negatives in the UK’s COVID-19 RT-PCR testing programmeCarl Mayers & Kate Baker, 3rd June 2020
Why are false positives a problem?DHSC figures  show that 100,664 tests were carried out on 31 May 2020 (Pillar 1 and 2 RT-PCR tests). 1,570 of those tests were positive for SARS-CoV-2 (1.6%). The majority of people tested on that day did not have SARS-CoV-2 (98.4% of tests are negative). When only a small proportion of people being tested have the virus, the operational false positive rate becomes very important. Clearly the false positive rate cannot exceed 1.6% on that day, and is likely to be much lower. If the operational false positive rate was 0.4%, 400 of the 1,570 positive tests would be false positives. That would represent 400 people being isolated when they are well, and much wasted effort in contact tracing. It is possible that a proportion of infections that we currently view as asymptomatic may in fact be due to these false positives.Unless we understand the operational false positive rate of the UK’s RT-PCR testing system we risk overestimating the COVID-19 incidence, the demand on track and trace, and the extent of asymptomatic infection.What causes false negatives?•Poor sampling technique. Nasopharyngeal sampling is invasive and can feel unpleasant. It may be less effective when carried out unsupervised, so the false negative rate may increase as sampling at home becomes more common.•Sample degradation. Samples may degrade when stored or while being transported.•Sampling too early. Viral shedding from individuals peaks just before, or at the onset of symptoms [4,5]. If samples are taken early in infection (1-4 days after infection) they have an increased false negative rate.•Sampling too late. Viral shedding declines after symptoms have peaked . Samples taken at this stage of infection will show an increased false negative rate.
Now here is the point
If you do more testing a day like we doing mass testing, you will get more false-positives which then increases the overall numbers of new cases to higher levels than before to somwhat scary levels. This test is not fit for purpose because it cannot tell the difference between those infected and have live virus and can spread it from those with dead rna and who are not infectious. soo if you increase the daily figure to 500k tests then 2000 cases would be false positives, test 1million a day and then thats 4000 false positives.
So it give you a picture that is very untrue and pretty much what Mike Yeadon – Expert on Viruses says and more in this video https://youtu.be/8bX-wFVBP94 well worth a watch imo.November 25, 2020 at 2:55 pm #130478
Mass testing is the way forward, look at the numbers in Liverpool now, 158 per 100k down from 540 at its peak . Jeremy Hunt said yesterday in an interview that Slovakia tested a good chunk of their population in one weekend and the numbers dropped by 85%.November 25, 2020 at 3:30 pm #130483ajn
Oh well glad it’s not upto you lot on here to save us all, it’s just just copy & paste what ever you can’t find resulting in nothing.
lots of paragraphs of nothing worthy, again it’s just all self important nonsense trying to sound intelligent.
Fact is nobody on here has a clue….November 25, 2020 at 5:27 pm #130490
Don’t feed the troll, people.November 25, 2020 at 6:28 pm #130494ajnParticipant
Wigwam do I not have a valid point of fact rather than the nonsensical rubbish you continue to splatter all over this subject..
I put it to you again you simply haven’t got the answer have you.
That’s a fact🙄November 25, 2020 at 10:12 pm #130501
Well, Folls, if we are being led up the garden path over wearing masks, then so are the citizens of the vast majority of Other Countries , including the country where the virus came from? Better safe than sorry?
Just like the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Scotland to remain part of the Uk (sorry Brydo ) and also, the recent record Tory election victory ie, the Majority wins !
, and ignoring the actions of certain anti Tory newspapers, then the majority of people will mask up!
Also, as it has been mentioned then it is open to fair comment – Foreign Aid cut.
It is but a cut of 2% of GDP under very special and unique circumstances, not an abandoning of the project- we will still be the second highest contributor to Foreign Aid in the G7, and before the anti Tories get all worked up over it , we will still be giving some 0.5% of GDP , whereas the maximum any Labour Government provided was some 0.39% of GDP!
I’ll bet my Tiguan that the people who will complain about the Foreign Aid cut will be the very same people who complain that not enough money has been spent on Coronavirus protection etc., even though it is more than just about any other country, and they will be the very same people who will oppose any measures to repay the money ( via tax increases) , that the government has spent.
Only in the UK!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
November 26, 2020 at 7:07 am #130513
- This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by Mike 700.
Sorry 0.2% not 2%:November 26, 2020 at 10:32 am #130529
UK National Debt Surpassed £1 Trillion
Mainstream media headlines today are focused on Britain’s record national debt, which just surpassed £1 trillion, a figure that can only exponentially increase unless the entire mechanism of Government finance is overhauled. The truth however is much worse, factoring in all liabilities including state and public sector pensions, the real national debt is closer to £4.8 trillion, some £78,000 for every person in the UK.
So i don’t think we can afford to be paying overseas aid mike. It’s like one giving to charity on a credit card that you can never afford to pay back. Then the balliffs will be around at some point. Our goverments is the IMF.
This debt will only grow and soon it will be no longer serviceable gdp is gonna take a huge hit because of the covid shutdown of the economy. Covid is adding to the debt hugely. The current lockdown and jobs losses are set to add more misery to the purse strings and so taxes will have to rise in the short term, but it will make no difference as more tax revenue is lost and more £££ will have to be loaned. To service the debt.
It not just the uk it’s lots of western countires and we all know what happen to greece I wonder how it’s is before more counties essentially go into adminstration and call in the IMF.November 26, 2020 at 10:35 am #130530
One small correction, rox. Covid is not adding to the debt hugely. The governments response to it isNovember 26, 2020 at 10:58 am #130531
Indeed wigwam, Only the goverment adds to the national debt, Taken out In our name, whatever it is for. Loaned by the central banks They make no money of their own and it is paid back by us. It has doubled very quickly from 1 to to 2 trillion The usa is worse although there is a better debt clock and it gives you some idea of the sacle of the problem. deffo getting out of control that’s for sure.November 26, 2020 at 12:25 pm #130535
If people actually open their Eyes, Rox, they will see that we are heading towards the biggest economic disaster in history!
It is not entirelythe fault of the government, they have spent less than the opposition wanted and would have done had they been in power, yet even so, we have spent more than most to keep the economy going – something which gets lost in the opposition’s cynical and hypocritical attacks .
What is clear however, is that if it was not for the good fiscal management of the last 10 years, we would have been in a much worse situation – the plain fact is that the government inherited the ‘then’ worst financial mess in history ,so started from a very low base, people should remember the outgoing Labour Chancellor’s chilling words ‘there is no money left’- he was not joking , we were one step from bankruptcy.
In fact, if anyone could use the word ‘ lucky’ in this dreadful situation, then we are lucky that interest rates are at a historical low, and that this, combined with this good fiscal management over the last 10 years has enabled us to borrow more than otherwise may have been available?
Any borrowing however needs to be repaid ‘ somehow’, because this is the real world, and lenders ( international, domestic, Joe Public ) want the money back , albeit over time, so just like any money borrowed personally, we may have to make sacrifices to repay it, and in this situation, we look at all of our expenditure and reduce it accordingly, and I’m sure, like you,that one of the first things cut ( I think ‘reduced ‘ not stopped ) in any household would be contributions to charity, rather than cut the essentials?
Taxation is part of the plan as well, as we will find out in the budget, ( yesterday was just a financial review not a budget ) and this will also cause uproar from the opposition, who in truth know full well that raising taxes is a must but, if they can score political points from higher taxes so be it.
Even the economically illiterate Shadow Chancellor Dodds knows that the infamous ‘ top 5% of earners will be asked to pay a little more’ was a Corbyn /Macdonald fantasy!
We will all have to pay, not as is being spun because it ‘the Government’s fault’, but because China, by accident ( some say by design ) unleashed yet another killer virus on the world, and this combined with the cost of Brexit **will cost us dearly.
We have all known from day 1 that Brexit would have a cost- how much of a cost depends on an agreement or not – btw , I note that one of the areas that is causing the EU problems is the level playing field and ‘State Subsidies’, in that they insist on us not subsidising struggling industry, yet there is a fund in the EU , which can be increased at the drop of a hat –
‘EU State aid rules allow significant support by Member States to companies affected by a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. The de minimis Regulation allows €200,000 to be granted over a three-year period without any conditionality. This instrument could, therefore be particularly relevant to support small and medium-sized enterprises’ – one rule for them, one rule for us?November 26, 2020 at 12:32 pm #130536
The French, of course, have walked all over the state aid provisions for years with their continued part ownership and massive funding of the French motor industry and energy industries to name but a few..November 26, 2020 at 1:00 pm #130537
It took 40 million PCR tests to find 1.5 million cases amongst 11 million people.
Or 26 tests to find 1 positive Covid Person.
And thats at 45 cycles.
Trust their data?November 30, 2020 at 12:15 pm #130740ajnParticipant
W H Y
🥴November 30, 2020 at 11:05 pm #130784
Pubs and cinemas may turn away people not Covid-vaccinated, says minister
Customers who have refused a Covid-19 vaccine could be turned away by hospitality and sports venues, the government’s vaccine minister has suggested, as he discussed the idea of using technology to reopen the economy.
Nadhim Zahawi said that while it was not compulsory, businesses such as pubs and restaurants might require proof that people had been vaccinated before allowing them in.
It raises questions over whether the government might use “immunity passports” as a way to get people back into shops and hospitality venues, after a vaccine is licensed. They are already used by some countries to see whether people have protection against yellow fever or polio.
The MP for Stratford-upon-Avon and minister for business and industry, said people would have to “make a decision” on whether to get vaccinated, and said if they chose not to they could face severe restrictions.
Sounds like it will be forced upon people in directly via the you cannot do this or that mode, what next, no vaccine, no travel, no work, no pip or state aid, No shopping pretty much No anything. Not if you ain’t had the vaccine you won’t.
Anything to encourage the uptake of a rushed vaccine they immune from any liabity over. Which i did hear they hoping to start rolling out asap maybe even in 10 days time, if it gets the go ahead.
No one really knows of the longer term effects with such a short study time frame, of a technology thats never been brought to market or gotten a licence to do so before now, but need to now because of the pandemic.
Infact they pushing it already like a drug pusher selling crack at camden lock or kings x. They can do one as well..
All when cases are dropping and some experts suggest 1/3 of the poupulation already had prior immunity to covid sars 2 the virus which is different to covid 19 the disease. Just like if you are HIV postive you do not have AIDS.
Globally 62,363,527 Confirmed Cases 1,456,687 Deaths
So lets talk recovery rates. Cases are probally higher than the total worldwide confirmed cases but death numbers are correct (unless you had a test 28 days ago and fell off a ladder, had a car accident or a stroke) but for the purposes, lets look at the figures given by the WHO.
Now divide 62,363,527(cases) by 100 to give us 1% which is 623,635.27 then 1,456,687(deaths) divided by 623,635.27 = 2.335799577211212 say 2.336 to round it off. Now 100% – 2.336 = 97.664 thats the recovery rate.
The data don’t lie. The lie is how they the goverment and the mainstream media package it up and just tell us how many cases and how many deaths there are, or a likely to be, over and over to paint a real bad picture. Forget the reasons why they would do that, but peoples average chances of death are less than 3% and look if you at higher risk then you need to take extra care as you would with any virus. but everyone.. I don’t think so..
More place/ areas are in being put into higher tiers but cases have dropped, what was the point of the lockdown 2.0 and how long will we have to protect / save the nhs for. Till next year or till 2022 when the CV19 bill is in place until to be reviewed every six months. It would not surprise me one bit.December 2, 2020 at 10:20 am #130887Brydo
800,000 people in the UK to get the vaccine next week.December 2, 2020 at 10:39 am #130891Tharg
Good news, Brydo. Only hope that our government can shake off incompetence and get it right.December 2, 2020 at 10:42 am #130892
Not really, Brydo. 800,000 doses will be available to the NHS next week as the first tranche. It will interesting to see how long it takes the NHS to get it into actual people.December 2, 2020 at 10:45 am #130893Brydo
Wigwam I think you are beyond help, this is great news not something to split hairs over.December 2, 2020 at 10:57 am #130896