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There is a lot of knowledge amongst us, I exclude myself.
The COVID 19 is dominating the news:
How worried should we be?
Will this be Spanish flu proportions or just another contained outbreak as SARS and MERS were?
Oh – and when will we start to see ‘Just in time’ manufacturing suffer?
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When people see bodies being thrown into plague pits & covered with a layer of lime before the next layer is thrown in they’ll finally realise just how serious this is.
Already in Italy the cremation facilities can’t keep up with the volume.
If you want a rough & dirty death rate from the UK statistics, look at how many cases there were detected 1 week ago (85) and then look at how many deaths there were a week later (8)….. that’s approaching 10%, the same as SARS.
What happened in Italy is unique to Italy:
Many Italians in Northern Italy sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights. Result: Northern Italy is Europe’s hotspot for Wuhan Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/eKZ0T59cUY
— David Vance (@DVATW) March 12, 2020
The government have been slow to react so far. This might change today after the COBRA meeting, but it seems that the government’s current thinking is ‘science led’ which basically means that their is nothing we can do to stop the inevitable pandemic affecting two thirds plus of the population. There will be a ‘managed’ approach that prioritises reducing damage to the economy for when we gradually emerge from this round of coronavirus.
Measures will be introduced to slow down the flow of the virus so that the NHS will have a better chance of dealing with it, but with the run down of the health service over previous years the NHS response is still going to be woefully inadequate at best and totally chaotic at worst.
We’re in for a bumpy ride ladies and gentlemen, so let’s keep supporting each other on here during this ‘rocky road’ period, while we continue to do the basic common sense things such as washing our hands and wiping down door handles and surfaces etc with great regularity.
Thanks for sharing that Wigwam, it explains why Northern Italy has been so badly hit. I was wondering why that was.
Facts, not scaremongering:
UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:
As of 9am 12 March 2020, a total of 29,764 people have been tested:
29,174 negative
590 positive8 patients who tested positive for coronavirus have sadly died.
The digital dashboard will be updated later today. pic.twitter.com/6hPeNlUU7f
— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) March 12, 2020
Unfortunatley there is a massive debate raging over the “science led” thing as it appears to be social science led rather than medical or biological science led, & as the debate goes on the pandemic rages, breaking our social bonds, breaking our families, or even breaking us in the process.
Please stay safe & try to avoid this dreadful disease as best you can, I’ve already told my sister that I won’t be picking her son up from university at the end of term because I was taught about quarantine whilst I was at university & it involves staying where you are rather than getting people to travel from area to area spreading contagion. I’m sure my nephew will agree as he’s in his second year of biology BSc Hons.
I went out 2 days ago, I could have been infected but I really don’t know, I’m waiting to see if any symptoms appear & hope they won’t, but I’ll not risk spreading this.
Expert reaction to the Republic of Ireland closing schools:
Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:
“It is too early to tell whether this is a sensible precaution or an overreaction for the current stage of the epidemic.
“Different countries are at different stages of the epidemic so what one country should do WILL NOT apply to others, we need to be guided by the local epidemiology and the science. This is why currently the UK has not followed these measures. Schools will close soon for the Easter holidays which will give some idea of the impact of this measure. Parents have already planned for childcare during these weeks.
“Closing schools has a number of known consequences. It might make the epidemic or ability to manage the consequences worse:
“1) Reduction in the health and social care workforces as people have to look after children.
“2) An increase in grandparents delivering childcare – this age group is at much greater risk.
“3) Additional movements of children to different places across the city/town/village for childcare which would not have occurred.
“Children do not seem to get serious illness with COVID-19 and we do not yet know what role they play in significantly spreading the virus.
“The UK should adopt UK-appropriate measures and NOT give in to the demand for something to be done otherwise this will result in inappropriate actions at the wrong time.”
Good post gothitjulie. You’re absolutely right about it being led by “social science rather than medical science”. The reason the government use the expression “science led” is to con people in to thinking that it’s best medical advice when it clearly is not. We are definitely being misled into believing that actions so far are for health reasons rather than economy led.
This makes it all the more important that we read between the lines and use our own common sense to mitigate coming into contact with the virus.
Professor Keith Neal says in Wigwam’s post “schools will close soon for Easter holidays” which will enable the government to see if school closures have any effect. What a load of hogwash …. If we look at the spread of coronavirus elsewhere, we see that the next three weeks is a key period for the spiralling spread of the virus, and the Easter school holidays are still over three weeks away!
The real reason for not closing schools now is contained in the line that follows this statement by the Professor, “Parents have already planned for childcare during the school holiday weeks.” In other words it’s a financial decision not a health driven one.
If schools close, parents will need to stay home to look after children. If parents stay home, their jobs will not be done. Apart from the cost to the economy, many of those jobs will be in areas where services will most need to continue to be delivered, like the health service, and social services., And in food manufacture and distribution. And yet, it is agreed the Corona virus poses a low risk to children.
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This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by
Wigwam.
Children have vulnerable grandparents. The school that my grandchildren attend have said to us privately that they are surprised they are still open.
I understand the point that parents have jobs and rely on schools to look after their children during the week, but if this puts a very vulnerable group at even more risk then a tough decision needs to be made.
Quite. POPS, and it’s the vulnerable grandparents who will be first in line to be called upon for childminding duties.
Schools could be required to run creches for the children of parents who have designated key jobs in the services you mention Wigwam. It could be a useful compromise between facilitating essential medical services, grocery retail necessity, and common sense community distancing.
- Needs more thought, POPS. I dont think your creche idea would solve the problem of dissolute teenagers roaming the streets looking for something to do until mummy/daddy gets home from work! There’s a wider societal problem of to be solved. I look forward to seeing what happens in Ireland.
Today @10DowningStreet announced we are moving into the delay phase of #COVID19. This means, if you have a new continuous cough OR a high temperature (37.8 degrees or higher), you should stay at home for at least 7 days from when your symptoms started. #Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/C3LrvJnLSR
— NHS England and NHS Improvement (@NHSEngland) March 12, 2020
The creche idea is a start though. We can’t just do nothing because we haven’t so far solved societies day to day problems.
I do see and agree with the valid points you make Wigwam. I’m just trying to think of the ‘least worse’ way forward if that makes sense …. of course I’m influenced by the fact that some WMC forum posters are more vulnerable to this virus than most other groups.
I was sent some info in the last hour by a good friend who works for a ‘government department’.
He says that today’s announcement after the Cobra meeting is stage one of a four part plan.
Stage one is basic, ‘self isolation for any one with symptoms for one week’.
Stage two will be ‘self isolation for any one with a family member with symptoms for two weeks’.
Stage three will be ‘isolation for anyone elderly and vulnerable (with or without symptoms for thirteen weeks’).
Stage four will be ‘closure of shops, events etc’.
Each press update to be released in stages to ease reaction.
Government planning is for 500,000 cases.
This plan lasts until September, with a current expectation of a May – June peak.
After a short reflection I’ve passed this information on to you guys and girls because at the moment Boris and co are telling us very little.
The press conference:
I think I’ve got the coronavirus every time I look at the FTSE 100 I come out in a sweat, feel sick and think I’m going to die lol.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe
Brydo, “the value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount you originally invested” as I’m sure you know!
My father, who invested far too heavily in his local bookie, advised me if I made any money to put it in property or gold and that stocks and shares and horseracing were two ends of the same swindle.
I tried to take his advice but seem to have ended up with just a mortgage and some gold cufflinks.
A friend of my son’s has just said that he went to Italy this week and it took him over 4 hours to get through Italian passport control due to detailed health checks. He’s just flown back to Stanstead and he’s walked straight through passport control with no checks …. 10 minutes from getting off the plane until walking out of the front door.
Another friend (a member of my son’s partner’s girl band) was in Rome last weekend. She told us how rigorous and time consuming the health tests were at Rome airport, and also said that she just breezed through Birmingham airport with no checks or questions at all. She is now self isolating because her company has insisted on it, but there was no word or direction from the government at all.
Make of this what you will.
I was sent some info in the last hour by a good friend who works for a ‘government department’. He says that today’s announcement after the Cobra meeting is stage one of a four part plan. Stage one is basic, ‘self isolation for any one with symptoms for one week’. Stage two will be ‘self isolation for any one with a family member with symptoms for two weeks’. Stage three will be ‘isolation for anyone elderly and vulnerable (with or without symptoms for thirteen weeks’). Stage four will be ‘closure of shops, events etc’. Each press update to be released in stages to ease reaction. Government planning is for 500,000 cases. This plan lasts until September, with a current expectation of a May – June peak. After a short reflection I’ve passed this information on to you guys and girls because at the moment Boris and co are telling us very little.
Many thanks for sharing this info, I, like many will be affected by stage three. I have tried to be sensible, like many by planning for a possible period of self isolation, but I did not expect it to be 3 months. The reality of the situation is we are looking at are best guesses. I am going to be speaking with a friend in Northern Spain later this evening and will be interested to hear their views on the state of emergency, declared this afternoon.
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This reply was modified 3 weeks, 1 day ago by
fwippers.
brydoShould those with the virus be named?
When I first thought of this I thought, why not, and I still think this as I’m sure most people with a fever, and the small chance of death, might not remember who they have been in contact with.
Of course the downside to this would be the chance of waking up the next day with a red cross on your front door.
Anything that limits the time those who may be infected interact with the general public surely would be a good thing.
Tom Hanks and various other celebs have done it so why not us commoner’s.
Just received this email –
Dear Member,
We’ve all seen coronavirus (or COVID-19) in the headlines snd you may be feeling anxious about what the next few months will bring for you and those around you. At Parkinson’s UK we’re here to support people living with Parkinson’s.
Advice on local group events
For people with Parkinson’s, there’s no increased risk of catching coronavirus. However, the advice for slowing the spread of the virus for people with underlying health conditions does include staying away from groups of people.
We’re asking branches to cancel group activities for now. In these uncertain and unsettling times developments are evolving and we’ll keep you up to date as our advice changes.
As a result of this advice from Head Office the XXXXXXXXXX & District branch of Parkinson’s UK will be cancelling all branch therapy and social activities immediately until further notice, these include:
Chair Based Exercises
Chair Yoga
Dance with Parkinson’s
Speech & Voice Therapy
LSVT Maintenance Sessions
Walking Football & Walking NetballMonthly Lunch Time Meeting
Monthly Social Evening Meeting
Lunch MeetingThe Health Suites & Therapy Centres are separate organisations and you must decide if you wish to book and attend them or not.
This is a difficult time for us all but by following this sensible recommendation we will get through the coronavirus challenge facing us all.
Regards
Thanks for sharing that info with us Mike 700.
Any of us who are in more vulnerable groups whether it be due to age, diabetes, heart or respiratory or any other of the numerous problems that afflict us or our loved ones, should be self isolating now (if possible). The older we get or the more health issues we have the less effective our immune systems become, so if we’re more vulnerable it makes sense to take our own very stringent precautions.
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This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by
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