Order now Q4… or wait until Q1 ?

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  • #130030 Reply
    solent60
    Participant

    Had my letter to say I can now order a new car from December 4th.

    I have a couple of vehicles in mind. The new Peugeot 2008 GT 155 eight-speed auto is top of my list with an AP of £1,899.

    My question is though… do I order now, in this quarter… or should I wait until early January and see if prices come down? What is everyone’s thoughts on this? I know that a no-deal Brexit will have some impact – but not until Q2 the motor industry say. Apart from BMW who are increasing their car prices straight away, all the other car manufacturers are waiting to see what happens. Surely, with the new car market on its knees right now, advance prices will at least stay the same… or drop in order to stimulate interest?

    The Peugeot is built in Spain and because it has all the bells & whistles, I will not require any extras – so there ‘should’ be some in stock around the UK. I know some of you will say order now but add a stipulation with the dealer that if the AP comes down – I will pay the new (lower) price – but what, in general, are people’s thoughts on AP’s in Q1 2021? Higher than now? Or lower?

    Thanks in advance. I am caught somewhere between a rock and a hard place!

Viewing 25 replies - 1 through 25 (of 28 total)
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  • #130033 Reply
    HoneyMonster
    Participant

    I find it best to speak to dealer. Explaining if price drops Q1 you wish it at lower price even if it means cancelling and re ordering. I did same just this last quarter I ordered  Kuga ST Line X in final couple days of Q3, however price dropped Q4. So my dealer re-ordered at the reduced price I have had confirmation from motability of order at lower price.

     

    #130035 Reply
    BigDave
    Participant

    Without having a crystal ball, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the future. Not just Brexit wise, but Covid-19 and its effect on most manufacturers’ component and their supply chains.

    However, if you are happy with the current AP, and can persuade your dealer to re-order should the AP go down in Q1 2021, then I would say order now. At least you should get the vehicle you want with price certainty. If the AP went up in Q1 and you had waited, how hard would you kick yourself?

    Also, the way vehicles appear and drop off the scheme with seemingly no ‘rhyme nor reason’ how disappointed would you be if your chosen car is not available on the scheme in Q1?

    #130036 Reply
    DBtruth
    Participant

    I agree with honeymonster. Your guess is as good as anyone’s with prices in the future so ordering then re ordering if necessary is all you can really do to cover yourself. I think it might save you a bit of stress too

    #130038 Reply
    solent60
    Participant

    Thanks for the input all.

    It’s a difficult one. Saying that, and thinking about it, it’s probably going to be exactly the same for all of us – no matter what time of the year we order. Advance prices tend to be erratic what with Covid19 and the way the world is right now. Brexit may or may not be a factor – who knows!

    I guess I’m going to have to go down the ‘Order now & re-order if the AP is lower’ route after all.

    #130043 Reply
    Markymate
    Participant

    I’m in the same boat as you Solent60, I can order from the 12th of December.  Originally I was going to extend the lease on the Kodiaq, then all the talk of no deal Brexit, Covid got me a bit edgy. Was going to order another Kodiaq SE L, but now Skoda have dropped some standard equipment which doesn’t make for good value in my opinion.  So I’ve test driven a few SUV’s before lockdown and like the Tarraco Excellence Lux. So back to your OP, do I order Q4, or wait for Q1.  As Big Dave says, what if they remove your choice, you’re buggared, and will have to start all over again.

    So I’ve spoke to the Seat dealer and he said he’s happy to re-order if the price is lower in Q1, so unless anything changes between now and the 12th of December, I’ll be ordering the Tarraco.

    I keep hoping that Big Dave will find a Seat offer out there somewhere!!

    Good luck with your decision, Solent60.

    #130045 Reply
    Brydo

    As the guys have said speak to your dealer, and get it in writing, that he will re-order the car if the AP is lower Q1.

    My Volvo dealer, Taggarts Glasgow wouldn’t do this but luckily the AP went up by about £1000.

    #130047 Reply
    solent60
    Participant

    I’m in the same boat as you Solent60, I can order from the 12th of December. Originally I was going to extend the lease on the Kodiaq, then all the talk of no deal Brexit, Covid got me a bit edgy. Was going to order another Kodiaq SE L, but now Skoda have dropped some standard equipment which doesn’t make for good value in my opinion. So I’ve test driven a few SUV’s before lockdown and like the Tarraco Excellence Lux. So back to your OP, do I order Q4, or wait for Q1. As Big Dave says, what if they remove your choice, you’re buggared, and will have to start all over again. So I’ve spoke to the Seat dealer and he said he’s happy to re-order if the price is lower in Q1, so unless anything changes between now and the 12th of December, I’ll be ordering the Tarraco. I keep hoping that Big Dave will find a Seat offer out there somewhere!! Good luck with your decision, Solent60.

    Cheers Markymate.

    It is a case of decisions, decisions.

    I guess the best advice then is… order the new car on December 29th/30th… and if the AP goes down a day or two later in Q1 – cancel that and re-order !?!?

    #130048 Reply
    solent60
    Participant

    As the guys have said speak to your dealer, and get it in writing, that he will re-order the car if the AP is lower Q1. My Volvo dealer, Taggarts Glasgow wouldn’t do this but luckily the AP went up by about £1000.

    That’s the worry right there Brydo! A thousand pounds is a lot of money.

    #130050 Reply
    Brydo

    No doubt Solent but most dealers will agree to recorded in Q1 the company I used has changed so much in the five years, for the worse, since we got our xc60. Then we got £600 of the AP and a free alloy update. Now they charged us £20 for fuel, no AP reduction and wouldn’t give us the cheaper AP if it had went down. Fair to say we won’t be going back next time.

    #130051 Reply
    Brydo

    That should read re-order not recorded, predictive text gone mad.

     

    #130052 Reply
    Georgie

    Keep in mind that if there is No Deal before January 1st there will be a 10% Tariff on imported cars.

    #130053 Reply
    Georgie

    As in cars imported from the EU under WTO rules.

    #130055 Reply
    rox
    Participant

    I used to be able to order in Q1 for april handover and every single car i was looking at getting went up in ap from Q4 (when i could not order the car) So I would say order it at the 1st available opportunity as then hopefully it will be available for handover on the 4th of march. As other have said if you set on one car then, talk to the dealer, as i did with my latest car they made a provisional order to secure the car i wanted in the colour i wanted, of which there was only 3 available before my handover date and no slots to build one at all in the 3 months. Then covid came along, so now my next handovers will be in june.

    #130067 Reply
    NewYork1
    Participant

    I think the only reason to hang on until Q1 is if you haven’t made your mind up on a car yet and want to see if there are more new models. Otherwise order now with the price guarantee from your dealer.

    Current car VW Touran SEL

    #130071 Reply
    Menorca Mike
    Participant

    I was looking at the Hyundai Kona the motability lady at my local dealer said the prices would come down in Q1 but my Toyota dealer he didn’t know If prices would go up or down on the new 2021 model CHR

    BBC Breakfast expert, VW Golf driver.

    #130078 Reply
    solent60
    Participant

    I was looking at the Hyundai Kona the motability lady at my local dealer said the prices would come down in Q1 but my Toyota dealer he didn’t know If prices would go up or down on the new 2021 model CHR

    And therein lies the problem Mike.

    In years gone by on the scheme, advance payments never used to fluctuate too much. They might go up a little for a certain model & trim or down a little. The only time they used to differ massively was when an old model was being phased out or a brand new model came on. They used to rise if manufacturers added sportier models with larger engines – but they never fluctuated like they’re doing in these crazy, strange old days of Covid-19/EU safety & emission rulings/Brexit, etc etc !!!

    #130082 Reply
    Glos Guy
    Participant

    I think that Covid and Brexit are red herrings in so far as AP’s are concerned. I just don’t buy the suggestions that if we have a no deal Brexit cars will go up by 10% from January. It’s scaremongering. As always, supply and demand will prevail. With the whole world in turmoil, countries need to maintain their export levels and a way will be found to shore up their car industries. Even if tariffs do apply, car manufacturers have such huge margins they will find a way to absorb some or all of them. Once one does, the others will follow. All this bunkum that Motability and dealers shout about margins and how small they are is just that – bunkum. Motability only sell mainstream cars, not exotica. Just because they are rubbish negotiators doesn’t mean that there isn’t around 20-30% margin in almost every car they supply. I have bought (directly or indirectly for family) a number of new cars in recent years (various manufacturers) and the lowest discount I negotiated was 17%. Most were over 20%. And I am one person, not a major lease supplier buying thousands of cars. AP’s are a law to themselves though and don’t necessarily follow market trends. They go up and down massively quarter to quarter for no logical reason and always have done, including well before Covid and Brexit. I suspect that will continue! So, to answer the OP, I agree with the advice of others. If you are keen on a car and happy with the AP, I would order but under the condition that you can re-order in Q1. If the 2008 needs no options, there should be no need for a deposit, so if the dealer plays silly buggers you could just cancel the order, which you might want to do anyway if Q1 produces a better car from a different manufacturer.

    • This reply was modified 4 days, 4 hours ago by Glos Guy.
    #130092 Reply
    Georgie

    Well that’s annoying – I’ve just wasted 30 minutes replying to Glos Guy and my post hasn’t gone through.

    #130087 Reply
    Georgie

    Four weeks ago the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) stated that if there were No Deal with the EU and the UK has to trade under WTO rules then the cost of imported cars from anywhere in the World, not just the EU – would rise by 10% (average price for ICE car currently £19k = extra £1,900; average price for e-cars £30,000 = extra £2,800).  Tariffs of up to 22% would be placed on vans and lorries.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/22/car-buyers-face-10-additional-cost-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit

    https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/09/only-weeks-left-to-save-eu-and-uk-auto-sectors-from-e110-billion-no-deal-brexit-disaster/

    If we have to Trade under WTO rules then tariffs will be applied to vehicles not only imported from the EU but from anywhere in the World:

    “WTO rules state that the same trading terms must be applied to all WTO members, unless, for example, there is a trade agreement between 2 or more countries. This is known as Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment.

    MFN means that the UK cannot offer better trading terms to one country and not to WTO members, unless, for example, it has a trade agreement.” (Gov.UK website ‘Trading under WTO rules’)

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/trading-under-wto-rules

    If they do come up with some kind of Deal then, obviously, we will apply those rules instead.

    #130102 Reply
    wmcforum
    Which Mobility Car

    Georgie, as you are not posting as a  logged in user when you add multiple links into a post the system is programmed to assume it is spam. I have approved the post, it will be visible above this one.

    #130108 Reply
    Georgie

    Thanks, wmcforum.  I’ll have to remember to go light on the links. 🙂

    #130110 Reply
    Tharg
    Participant

    Didn’t know you were a golfer, Georgie…

    #130115 Reply
    Stuart
    Participant

    Just speak to as many dealers as you can thats what i did. I eventually took the plunge and ordered but told the dealer as my collection date is Feb 8th if the AP drops in Jan i will be cancelling and re ordering and they were OK with that. Having said that a few dealers i spoke to were adamant the car would be coming off in Jan so i may have played a blinder if that happens. Either way until you enter your PIN nothing is written in stone anyway.

    ----------------------------
    Tiguan SEL Auto in Tungsten Silver
    ----------------------------
    Metal Detectorist & scale modeller
    in my spare time
    ----------------------------

    #130116 Reply
    Glos Guy
    Participant

    Four weeks ago the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) stated that if there were No Deal with the EU and the UK has to trade under WTO rules then the cost of imported cars from anywhere in the World, not just the EU – would rise by 10% (average price for ICE car currently £19k = extra £1,900; average price for e-cars £30,000 = extra £2,800). Tariffs of up to 22% would be placed on vans and lorries.

    If we have to Trade under WTO rules then tariffs will be applied to vehicles not only imported from the EU but from anywhere in the World: “WTO rules state that the same trading terms must be applied to all WTO members, unless, for example, there is a trade agreement between 2 or more countries. This is known as Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment. MFN means that the UK cannot offer better trading terms to one country and not to WTO members, unless, for example, it has a trade agreement.” (Gov.UK website ‘Trading under WTO rules’) If they do come up with some kind of Deal then, obviously, we will apply those rules instead.

    Hi Georgie. I don’t dispute the technicalities of the WTO rules but my point, which I may not have made clearly enough, was that even in that scenario I just don’t see a 10% rise being automatically applied to retail prices – for the reasons  I stated. The car industry would be shooting itself in the foot when it is already walking with a severe limp! They have a hell of a lot of margin (several times more than any potential tariff) to play with and will be forced to do so to remain competitive. I think that ‘project fear’ is in full swing again, this time being peddled by the motor industry as they are desperate for a deal given that imports and exports are their life blood. I understand that, but I think we have to keep in mind that even if we trade on WTO terms from January (which is still an ‘if’), it doesn’t mean that we will be doing so for ever. Negotiations will continue and deals will be found – sooner rather then later, I predict. The U.K. is often painted by the media as the ‘victim’ who will be made to ‘suffer’ as a result of Brexit, but we export almost as many cars as we import, so it’s just as much in the E.U.’s interest as it is ours to have productive trade deals.

    As I said in my last post, in so far as Motability is concerned, the impact on AP’s is less clear cut. I fear that all the evidence points to the fact that they are very poor negotiators when it comes to prices paid for cars. If we believe what we are told, they pay more for thousands of cars than a private individual can easily negotiate when buying one! If they are seen as a ‘soft touch’ (which I suspect they are) then there is a danger that manufacturers may choose to recoup some of the discounts that they have to throw at private customers in our direction. However, the same rules of supply and demand apply. They have cars to shift and Motability operations are a major customer. If AP’s on some cars become uncompetitive people will either shun them and choose cars where AP’s are more competitive or will leave the scheme and source a car privately. Running a Motability car isn’t always the ‘no brainer’ that so many people think it is. In fact, more people who are in receipt of higher rate mobility PIP don’t use the scheme than do. Almost £10k of sacrificed tax free benefits plus an AP payment is quite a price to pay for ‘peace of mind’. Hopefully, if there is a short term hit to prices, Motability Operations may throw a tiny bit of their obscene levels of reserves (which, let’s face it, have come about by charging more for AP’s than they needed to) to help soften the blow to disabled customers – but then again…..!

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 15 hours ago by Glos Guy.
    #130119 Reply
    Glos Guy
    Participant

    Just speak to as many dealers as you can thats what i did. I eventually took the plunge and ordered but told the dealer as my collection date is Feb 8th if the AP drops in Jan i will be cancelling and re ordering and they were OK with that. Having said that a few dealers i spoke to were adamant the car would be coming off in Jan so i may have played a blinder if that happens. Either way until you enter your PIN nothing is written in stone anyway.

    A very sensible approach Stuart. I see that you currently have the same car that we do. What are you replacing it with? Ours is due for renewal next quarter.

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