@Oscarmax As you rightly say, even with the new 3p levy, as long as you can do the vast majority of your charging at home, an EV will still work out cheaper. There are, however, several other issues that need to be taken into account;
Firstly, whilst EVs remain cheaper for those with home chargers, most people don’t do these detailed calculations, and the ‘optics’ of the pence per mile surcharge, and the yet to be announced way in which it will be administered, will inevitably put off many of those who were wavering on the idea of switching. It’s going to be really interesting to see what happens to EV sales versus ZEV mandates in 2026 (they were already behind target in 2025, even before this announcement).
Secondly, the public aren’t as stupid as politicians think, and we all know that the 3p per mile is just the start and will almost inevitably rise over time to at least 6p to match the current fuel duty take from ICE cars.
Next, tens of millions of people can’t charge at home and, at present, EVs remain impractical for them. I don’t see a robust plan to tackle this issue.
There are also plenty of people (we are in this category, as are most of our family and friends) where running costs aren’t necessarily top of the priority list when choosing a car. We have a PHEV and frankly I find it a faff charging it. Yes, it doesn’t take long, but it’s something I’ve never had to do before. I miss the convenience of just one 5 minute fuel stop every 3 or 4 weeks and never having to touch the car other than driving it, and would go back to that in a heartbeat, even though it costs more.
As Motability customers, we are shielded from many of the things putting off even those who can charge at home from switching – high up front costs, crippling depreciation, cost of a home charger installation, high insurance costs etc. Lower running costs alone aren’t enough to alleviate those worries, hence why private buyers remain slow to convert.
With all of these things combined, I’m not surprised that even after several years of pushing them, EVs still only represent 5% (1 in 20) of the cars on our roads and only 1 in 4 of new cars being sold even now (in a market that has dropped well below pre COVID sales levels as a result of the uncertainty). I’ve seen a few surveys quoting something like 30-40% of motorists saying that they have no intention of switching to an EV, so will simply keep their ICE cars longer.
So, in summary, whilst there is no doubting the logic that, for those who can charge at home, EVs can generate significant cost savings even with the new mileage charge, there are loads of other factors that motorists, especially those who can’t access the Motability scheme, will take into consideration before deciding whether or not to switch. It looks like the EU is going to move their 2035 target back to 2040, which would leave the U.K. as an outlier with a ten year earlier target of 2030. I think the smart money is now not on if the UK will move their 2030 date back, but when.