Be delighted to Wigwam. Firstly I think it’s important to look at the UK economy in its entirety before discussing Scotland.
The UK is one of the most centralised states in Europe in terms of of its Government and its Economy. The last set of stats I saw several years ago showed that of the Countries and regions of the UK only London and the South East of England were in surplus. Every other Country and region were in deficit and that is the dilemma of the way the UK is run politically and economically. Yes there is a generous settlement with the Barnet formula but it was written on the back of a fag packet (a statement made by Mr Barnet himself) and it has succeeded in keeping Scotlands head just above water.
Even were the system to be a little more generous the heavy hand of the UK government would still be holding the tiller of the economy. Couple that with the fact that the UK is the most unequal country in Europe in terms of how its considerable wealth is distributed. Any Country with a full third of its children living in poverty needs radical change. Of course we saw recently an example of how the UK government treats the poorest when a fine young man called Marcus Rashford shamed them into providing school meals for the poorest children in England. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland had already made sure these children were already receiving these meals.
The Barnet formula is also problematic in that the consequential payments are linked to expenditure in England. As we know on this forum the current and previous governments are busy cutting benefits for every claimant they can. That can only mean that the Barnet consequential will be reduced by the back door.
I will admit that at present although the Scottish economy is in a reasonable state (in a recent OECD economic comparison report Scotland was placed 17th out of 33) it would have problems with its tax v expenditure deficit. However I believe that the assumption being made by people is that the new Scottish government would continue with the same policies that have harmed Scotland so badly. With a dynamic new government committed to Scotland specific economic policies they can soon get that deficit reducing.
But it is isn’t just about the economics. As Brexiteers will I’m sure agree it’s about the freedom to create the Society that reflects the aspirations of it’s people by having the tools to do so. Within the crushing presence of the UK government there is no chance for the Scots to create fully the Country they would like to be. The UK has the choice of either reacting like Spain or the more mature democracy that they surely believe they are.
In any case unless they resort to the kind of dictatorial actions of a country like China the truth is that you cannot kill a movement towards freedom. It is a matter of time until Scotland becomes Independent and it will then be their fate to decide whether they make a success of it. As for the UK its reputation as a fair and tolerant society will depend on how it reacts to Scotlands referendum result.
As I mentioned earlier 65 Countries have left the Empire and not one has requested to return to their prior servile state. So the odds are with Scotland.