30% is an excellent figure. In the older days they used to say you loose 10% just driving a new car off the forecourt.
The 10-15% figure is much the same today. In the first year loss can be with in 15-40% and upto 60% over 3yrs. Obviously this is dependant on the vehicle and manufacturer. I would be very interested in what Motability paid for their vehicles.
As you say, this massively varies by manufacturer. Some brands retain an incredibly high proportion of their value, even at 3 years, whereas others depreciate at a horrendous rate.
As for what Motability pay it would indeed be very interesting to know. It’s still perfectly easy to negotiate quite big discounts as a private individual. 7.5% to 12.5% seems to be the norm, with some cars as high as 20%. Big lease companies probably start at an absolute minimum of 20% and go well above that, especially when manufacturers want to shift models. Any figures that we see on invoices are never the full picture. Then, of course, Motability don’t pay the 20% VAT – and we wonder why the cash surpluses are so high ?