- This topic has 15 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 1 month ago by steve.
July 5, 2022 at 3:07 pm #189999Echo22Participant
Looking forward and at the bigger picture it may well be that events will soon favour the mobility scheme
I expect to see great improvements within 9 months time.
My thinking is by then chip shortage will be a thing of the past
Backed up orders will no longer be an issue
The amount of new cars being ordered will now drop away quite significantly imo due to the poor economic climate
More manufactures will need to rejoin the scheme to shift their stock
I can also see a quarter or two where manufactures lower AP and compete simply to off load what will be a stock pile of cars
Long term future supply of electric cars may well be impacted due to quite possible shortage of lithium, time will tell
Crystal ball now put away and will wait to see how things unfold
July 5, 2022 at 3:27 pm #190002POPSModerator
An interesting post Echo22. I see the common sense in what you’re saying, but I’m concerned that the world economy is going to be in a chaotic state over the next couple of years.
Manufacturers may well reduce the number of cars on their production lines and price in a bigger profit margin to make up for the shortfall from less sales. VW are already looking to offer fewer models at a more premium price in the relatively near future.
I hope I’m being unnecessarily pessimistic.July 5, 2022 at 3:53 pm #190003ChrisKParticipant
It’s a train of thought that has crossed my mind a few times but its not all good for Motability as it draws attention to us with our new cars while the rest of the World goes down the pan.July 5, 2022 at 3:56 pm #190005fwippersParticipant
One think I have learnt over the last few years, it’s impossible to predict anything.July 6, 2022 at 9:30 am #190061Fastbike1000Participant
Motability have in the past kept things ticking over in the British car market when recessions and economic downturns have hit the British economy, but this time it feels different.
Car manufacturers seem to have learnt a lesson with the pandemic and chip shortages.July 6, 2022 at 10:40 am #190065
The biggest problem are imo that the allowance ain’t keeping up with the rises in the price of new cars and that is something I don’t see changing and i do believe a tipping point will soon be reached, were many won’t be able to justify the large ap’s to lease a car on the scheme, thats suitable for their needs.
I don’t see the goverment giving out more towards the allowance as cars have risen in price some are up 26% in the last couple of years, well over the rate of inflation and with energy cost rising and rising car cost will rise further as will everything else. One part of that is they use a different rate to calculate benefit rises than the actual rate of inflation, which is always higher than the rise in benefits. The gap grows year on year.
Many in the industry believe this is the new model and rather like it as they are making more profits and selling less cars to do so and not having them sitting round for however long as was the case in the past.
Infact there will be less cars on the road as goverment and local powers want us all to walk, cycle and use public transport more. Which is all good if your able to, but us who get the higher rate of mobility allowance cannot and not much thought is being given to us at all and how will they do it? and achieve those goals set out.
They will make driving a car like smoking, expensive to discourage it’s usage and frowned upon so people change their attitudes towards personal owership of cars. You will rent everything and be happy.
The same will happen to meat it will rise in price to stop us buying it or as much of it… it is their go to tool right now, like the sugar tax. Now in kfc you can only get artificial sugar soft drinks. There’s already many less drinks with just sugar in them,in supermarkets and as the artifical variant is cheaper, many will buy that instead and less and less sales of sugary drinks will mean they’re dropped altogether at some point.
That’s what they want and is the goal and it’s the same with cars, they want less congestion but then create more congestion as a result of their actions. So then they can rollout more restrictions to meet the global targets they have setout and the revenue they have lost in doing so will have to be clawed back.
What impact doe’s the weapons we supplying ukraine or used in other regions have on the planet or those that set the agenda flying about. No it’s us that should flyless, driveless and eat less the main tool they using is making it unaffordable for the masses and the same will be done with cars.
They are creating the situations and use crisis’s to implement the pre-planned policies. Driving is becoming more and more a stress many are quiting also. No one can say driving is as enjoyable as it was in the past. It’s by design it’s that way. The car drivers must pay for the demise of the car.
With more tech being added to cars they cost more, never mind electric ones. So that will limit the scheme imo unless you can afford to pay huge ap’s to get something bigger and more expensive than ever before, you’ll have to pick something either not really suitable for your needs or consider other options.
When that is for you depends on affordability and what you can afford to do. Moving forward i see less and less cars being affordable to the masses, like how it was many years ago. 2, 3 or 4 car families will be a thing of the past, they’ll be lucky if they can afford one between them all. That’s if there even allowed, as i do believe those days will come and it will be for our own good, to save us from ourselves and the evidence is irrefutable, only they won’t provide any at all..
I have just recently left the scheme as it’s right for me and i see many more having to do so as it’s what’s right for them. Personally i hope i am wrong but thats what i’ve been seeing for quite a few years now, the scheme is not as viable as it was and the main reason is the price of cars and i don’t see prices dropping or affordable cars being a thing, as they will be to small for many and whatever the car is fueled by it causes congestion, just like how the climate changes and has done forever.July 6, 2022 at 12:20 pm #190075volkswinParticipant
You make some very good points, i have been thinking broadly the same.
For those who can afford a new BEV or a fairly new used one there’s not much of a problem, however there are many people who can only afford a few thousand pounds for a banger.
Many will sinply not have the money to buy a half decent used BEV, petrol will soon be unafordable nevermind road tax so these people will be forced off the road and onto our inadequate public transport, so those in power can claim they have achieved the emmisons targets.July 6, 2022 at 12:54 pm #190076
Then it will be onto the next crisis. The Planet is now cooling? or what we do will make no difference at all.
Co2 levels have been higher in the past and the planet has been hotter, sea levels have been higher than now also.
Somethings are on a bigger cycle than humans been around or can comprehend or have been keeping records for. But as long as we’ve been around we’ve control and manipulated and suppressed the people for resourses and profit and ego and then it’s all fell apart or made to fail apart so a new system can be brought in, build back better?
History tells us alot but they like to erase it so you can never learn from it and the same tricks can be used again on the next generation and the disciples lap it up and assists in spreading the doctrines of another.July 6, 2022 at 2:55 pm #190081struthParticipant
this may be my last car as if expected the ap’s continue to rise i may well be priced out. if i last long enough and able to drive i may keep this for the 5 yrs… its a nice car this ev and easy to drive etc.
Tech especially battery tech may bring costs down for manufacturers but may not be passed down to the customer.
Current Car: Hyundai Kona Premium EV...2 way 40kg hoist
Last Car: Toyota C-HR Excel Hybrid...4 way 80kg hoistJuly 9, 2022 at 2:48 pm #190288Ldc7080
Disagree with your assessment. Many OEM order books are full for 12 months . The semi conductor issue will go into 2023. Every manufacturer now has a plan to make more 100% EVs. This comes at an oncost right now. The grants are gone and the APs are disgusting and go against everything motability has been doing for the last 10 years. Customers being forced to do 5 year leases due to only 520ish cars on a 6mibth+ waiting time
will be years before the scene is betterJuly 9, 2022 at 5:21 pm #190305ChrisKParticipant
It’s true manufactures order books are full with a 12 month backlog at the moment but these orders were signed before the World started to fall apart and long before the Russian invasions.
Many are keeping with those orders simply because if they cancel and walk away they would have to fork out thousands on a new order and not get any finance help or little help from the manufacturer to buy their car, that and with interest rates taking its toll.
I was watching a couple of yanks talking about the American second-hand market today and they recommend anyone buying second-hand to hold off for a few month because with the interest rates rising fast the car market is going to take a dive for both new and old cars and this in a country that has some of the highest living standards in the World
I hate to say it but interest rates and cost of living are going to far out weigh the problems with chip supplies for sure.July 12, 2022 at 7:22 am #190481steve
The problem is there are so many factors coming into play:
The ban on Petrol and Diesel cars from 2030. The is means manufacturers will stop selling conventional powered cars totally by 2028 as they will not want to be the last man standing.
Covid has changed the way people commute. Fewer car and train journeys affecting the need for more new cars.
Prices and availability of Petrol and diesel filling stations. Little needs to be said about prices but the number of filling stations closing is on the rise and will be accelerated as people goto to Coffee shops to charge their EV and have a beverage / time out. Plus with less petrol stations it is going to be harder to refuel and at the mercy of supply and demand.
More legislation and rule changes. More motorways and dual carriageways have pollution control speed limits and here in Wales a blanket 20 mph speed limits in Urban areas and zero parking on pavements. Why have a big car if you can only trundle along at low speeds and then have difficulty parking it ? If you look at the scheme, most of the vehicles as 1.2l to 1.5l with very few 2.0 l plus.
Attempts to reduce the number of accidents, thefts and other negative behaviour will see the increased introduction of technology. For many years these were on the decline, now post covid they are increasing. Soon it will be mandatory for cars to have Emergency breaking, collision assist, dash cams, black boxes and speed control plus more autonomous driving.
Since our vehicles are funded through the public purse, the government could mandate no more fossil fuel cars on the scheme.
Plus if you were to buy a fossil fuel car now or next year and kept it for the average 3 to 5 years, will it have any value by 2028 ?
The rise of more smaller portable transport e.g. the current use of electric scooters and bikes. We could well see a rise in novel ways of transporting one or two people.
If anything, the next 3 years will see an even greater chip shortage as all the manufacturers build ever increasingly sophisticated cars.July 12, 2022 at 9:35 am #190489JojoeParticipant
The one thing I do agree may be a positive for Motability customers, is inflation and cost of living. They’ll almost certainly be less retail customers with people feeling the pinch. Will this mean manufacturers flood back to Motability, hopefully!July 12, 2022 at 12:00 pm #190507
The one thing I do agree may be a positive for Motability customers, is inflation and cost of living. They’ll almost certainly be less retail customers with people feeling the pinch. Will this mean manufacturers flood back to Motability, hopefully!
Plans are to make less cars and more premium one’s.
So the average person cannot afford to buy a car anyway. They are actively discouraging car ownership even ev’s and wanting people to walk and cycle more. Trials sponsored by the UN in cities around the world are going on with everthing you need within 15 mins walk of your home.July 12, 2022 at 12:10 pm #190510
Plus if you were to buy a fossil fuel car now or next year and kept it for the average 3 to 5 years, will it have any value by 2028 ?
Replacing all the fossil cars ain’t going to happen before 2030 and infact some say, it would be better for the planet if we kept stuff for longer rather than the mode goverments and climmite activists are pushing right now. One where we scrap cars and make new ones.. Good for those making and selling the cars but not so good for the environment as the footprint is huge.
Policy could change people’s view like with ulez and many having to swap to one to afford the fees for driving in london etc but what it did was increase prices of those used cars as there was a demand and bev’s ain’t going to work for everyone.July 13, 2022 at 7:32 am #190583steve
I didn’t say we will be replacing fossil fuel cars. It is that it is unlikely we will be able to buy them by 2028 and with petrol stations closing down and continued fuel shortages. In rural areas, many families are switching to EV’s because it is easier than having to fill up at a garage that maybe 20 plus miles from home.
Today the Welsh Government confirmed that from September 2023, all urban roads will be defaulted to a 20 mpg speed limit. The other home nations are likely to follow suit eventually. Commuting or even shopping, with a car whining in 3rd gear is soon going to get tiresome and people will switch to EV or scooters.
At the moment there is a hype in the market over used cars causing inflated values. However, this is only for desirable and economic vehicles. Second hand dealers are flooded with pick ups and low MPG 4x4s.