Unfortunately there will be no ICE vehicles at some point and currently the only real alternative is EV’s
With the delayed deadlines, the exceptionally slow take up of EVs amongst private buyers, and the fact that the average age of cars on our roads is 9 years old, the situation that you describe is at least 25 years away. That’s 8 or 9 Motability leases away!
that’s wrong, once the dead line passes in 11 years there will be no NEW ICE as stated above. however anything could happen
It wasn’t long ago, the ban was 6/7 years away and now its 11yrs. No one here today will know what’s going to happen in 10 or more years time!
Do people realise that while the 100% ban of new ICE vehicles got delayed by 5 years, the required sales quota has in fact barely slowed down? To point out the incredibly obvious (to anyone with even just a marginal understanding of the matter), here are the numbers.
This year, 22% of all cars have to be electric. Next year, it’s 28%. 2026: 33%.
In 2030: instead of the former 100% of all sales, it’s now 80%. And you bet any penny you got that these ICE cars will NOT be your bread and butter vehicles, but the ones that make the most money. Bentley GTs, anything that has 8, 10, 12 or more cylinders. Proper expensive cars.
For you and me, the deadline absolutely is still 2030.
Again. From 2030 to 2035 the required quota rises from 80% to 100%. 20% in 5 years. From 2025 to 2030 the quota rises from 28% to 80%. 52% in 5 years.
Those 5 years absolutely make zero difference to any of us. The 20% ICE cars they’re allowed to sell in 2030 to 2035 will be cars with a base sticker price of at least £70.000 for a base model, because that’s where they make most of their money.
I explained that in another thread: any ICE car sold over the allowance costs a manufacturer £15.000, as was mentioned here as well. Whereas a sold EV can result in a tradeable credit for the manufacturer.
Even IF they extend the deadline by another year/s, the required quotas year to year will still rise. There still will be less and less incentive for manufacturers to produce ICE cars.
And, btw, before Glos Guy comes in with “they vote with their wallet” and some other unsolicited political quips, no. They don’t. The way this will go (not might, will) is that they’ll offer cheaper base model EVs, basically Fiat 500 size. Small (or more accurately, cheap) ICE cars will simply seize to exist.
To further the point per example, VW delivered over 400.000 cars in 2022. That requires them to sell 88.000 EV, or pay £15.000 pound for every car out of those 88.000 that isn’t an EV. Paying £15.000 on a £22.000 car, do you genuinely think they’ll continue selling it? Once the ratio for the quota becomes so unfavourable that a noticeable percentage of cars basically are given away for free due to the fine, they’ll cease to exist. Likely replaced by something like an ID2 or even ID1 (Polo/Up), which will be “more affordable” (but still vastly more expensive than the ICE predecessor).
In regards to your “political analysis”, i haven’t forgotten who introduced this measure. You can rail at Labour as much as you want, in the end they just need to point out that the ZEV Mandate is the brain child of the Tory party, introduced/announced by one of the many PMs of the last few years. In fact, so much so that after Windbag Johnson announced his “Ten Point plan for a green industrial revolution” in 2020, the Tory party doubled down on it in 2023 after reviewing the policies.
All Labour needs to do is “ignore it”, and if they’re, contrary to any political reality, pushed by Tories on this, they just need to point out that it was their idea in the first place.
Prior: SEAT Ateca Xcellence Lux 1.5 TSI DSG MY19, VW Golf GTE PHEV DSG MY23
Current: Hyundai Ioniq 6 Ultimate
Next: we'll see what's available in 2028.