I would expect new ICE or hybrid cars will be sold off at a cheap price within a year of the ban. I also imagine those not wanting an EV, haven’t categorically said no they don’t – rather more of the case they don’t want one right now or for foreseeable future! I’m afraid this constant drum beat goes unheard! ?
I agree that the date of the ban will move back at least 5 years (in the first instance – it may well move further subsequently) but I actually think that the opposite will happen with ICE car prices. I predict that new prices will hold steady as the ban draws nearer (as there will be less supply but the demand will still be there) and used ICE prices will actually rise. There are a number of reasons for this.
Whilst this forum has a disproportionately high number of people who are huge EV enthusiasts, those sourcing an EV through Motability don’t have the high acquisition costs to contend with, nor the cost of the home charger installation. Most also have the ability to charge at home. As manufacturers are now discovering, demand from private individuals who have to front all these costs themselves isn’t growing at anywhere near the rate that they anticipated – hence the price drops and reports of production slowing (see VW article provided earlier).
Also, keep in mind that also unlike Motability customers, the vast majority of people do not buy a brand new car. The average age of cars on U.K. roads is around 9 years old. These reasons alone will see the ICE car market remain robust for at least the next 15-20 years, and that’s before you start to consider the other issues, such as millions of peoples inability to charge at home, charging infrastructure concerns (it isn’t growing at the rate required), worries over replacement battery costs for second hand privately owned EVs etc etc etc