I agree that assumptions are dangerous, which is why I quoted factual evidence from interviews and exit polls at the time (with older voters) after the referendum. It was found that over two thirds of older voters voted to leave the EU.
The figures for the voting intentions of new young voters joining the electoral roll was collated from a large number of face to face interviews with these young people in which two out of every three stated that they would irrevocably vote remain if they had the opportunity. The rest were either committed to vote leave or still making their minds up.
Pollsters latest predictions are that the 4% margin for vote leave, has now reversed itself and vote remain would currently have at least a 4% majority. I don’t think that this prediction is as reliable though because it refers to a very large body of voters.
Researchers and pollsters often get things wrong, but the indications are that remain has had a majority just on a demographic basis since January of this year on the basis of changes to the electoral register, so if you add the numbers to people’s stated views it at least gives you a starting point on which to view the possible out come of a second referendum.
I’d be interested to know what facts you base your thoughts on about a likely outcome Mike?