The 2024 ZEV 22% target was missed which came in at 19.6%, close, but no cigar. Source: Drive Electric
Now that the targets are starting to really tick up, I can see the yearly shortfalls increasing – massively. Early adopters have adopted and most fleet users who want to switch for tax reasons will have already done so, so those two groups (who make up the vast majority of EV drivers) will be renewing EVs, rather than switching to them. For the percentages to increase substantially it will become increasingly dependent on private buyers switching.
Whilst EVs are incredibly popular amongst contributors to this forum, I always think that it’s important to remember that we are not representative of the majority. First and foremost, we are not having to buy our cars, and I’ve already mentioned some of the barriers that are stopping private buyers from buying EVs. Secondly, many Motability customers are on low incomes (perhaps even just benefits) and cheap running costs will have a disproportionately high importance over other factors.
I find it very interesting that of my wide circle of family and friends (none of whom are disabled and all are in employment or on private pensions), only one person has an EV (my nephew – and he can’t wait to go back to a petrol car when his lease is up as he cannot charge at home and the novelty of public charging has well and truly worn off) and only one has a PHEV (me)! Even though the overwhelming majority of the others would be able to charge off road, none of them is interested in an EV, even if it would save them money. Not only are they not interested but they actively wouldn’t want one. That’s why I feel confident in saying that the targets remain unachievable. Of course, if this weeks local elections were to be replicated at the next general election, the ZEV targets wouldn’t be softened – they’d be completely scrapped! Stranger things have happened. Voters don’t like being told that they must do things that they don’t want to do!