You make alot of sense mate.
I think Fiat CEO, was one the last, to confirm Fiats intention to bring out a new petrol car, due to a ‘slower than anticipated uptake of EVs across Europe’ in an interview with Autocar. However, I believe by looking at the VW group, is a good indicator of whats happening with the BEV market overall. Their anti lay off policy, showed strong determination in the sector but, has only led to the treat of strike action, due to the closure of plants in Germany. Earlier in the year, we saw Volvo sell the majority of its struggling Polestar shares to its owner Geely. So yes real demand has slowed in the sector and perhaps a natural migration would have been the better way to go, rather than governments across europe setting out unrealistic demands? Personally, I can’t see how a Labour or any other UK government can deviate away, from dates set by EUrope, where the majority of cars are made for the european market. The EU, has already U turned on its 2035 deadline by allowing more carbon neutral vehicles to be sold after 2035. At the same time, there is a growing number of countries, who want the deadline to be pushed back further. Only in March this year, the heads of BMW, Volkswagen, and Renault have spoken out against European Union’s emission targets arguing that the phase-out rules put too much pressure on the industry and that consumers aren’t buying EVs fast enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if Motability allows itself to be used. By that I mean, manufacturers off loading vehicles at a cheaper price than they would otherwise do so, to help meet their ZEV targets and once the targets are close to being met, renogotiate higher prices during the latter quaters of the year. If this is indeed their intentions, BEV’s will see AP fluctuations throughout the year with the potential of higher AP’s for those manufacturers who have met their target and possible increases, to limit the affect of fines with those manufacturers who haven’t met the current years target.
Not only will Motability happily allow themselves to be ‘used’ in this way but I’ve not doubt they’ll sell it as putting the customers first in trying to provide as many cars at lower prices.
I think the timing of the ZEV percentages will become obvious in our pricing. We’ll see every manufacturer who has a problem purely by the prices offered. Huge increases in petrol/diesel models and even larger discounts on BEVs just to get their numbers looking better. However, I’m not sure how a £10k discount to Motability would look on our APs, I very much doubt we’d see that much, theoretically, it’ll take any car on scheme down to a near £0 AP but I bet discounting will cause a formulaic dip in estimated Future Values, so an increase in risk of losses at the other end of the lease.
I'm Autistic, if I say something you find offensive, please let me know, I can guarantee it was unintentional.
I'll try to give my honest opinion but am always open to learning.
Mark