It’s going to be fascinating to see where depreciation goes on ICE vehicles into the next decade. The variables will be demand from those determined to stay with dino fuels, availability of fuel, cost of fuel, the demand for BEVs and the demand for Hybrids of all forms. If the impending transition (2030 – 2035) to only BEVs means demand for hybrids shortens dramatically, then the demand for fuel may also reduce with more profit being available from converting petrol stations to charging hubs. Will that then mean that while the overall supply of Petrol and diesel will be readily available, the localised picture will be very different as a number of petrol stations close and are reopened as charging hubs.
If the fuel is harder to come by, does that then impact the value of the ‘old style’ vehicles that run on those fuels? Naturally there will be a filtering down of availability of non electric vehicles. By 2035 all cars 4 years old or newer will have a traction battery, if the 2035 Hybrid deadline comes in, then by 2040 all 4 year old cars will be fully electric. Does that then mean that ICE cars will become collectors items or ‘dirty smelly relics of a bad history? Will we have to wait for a generational change where the children of today (and future generations) are the majority of the adults and will have grown up knowing electric cars and having that environmental message drilled into them from a very young age? Will that translate into a massive reduction in demand for ICE? Will we find in 10 years that most under 25s will want to drive electric cars? Especially as the availability of BEVs in the second hand market gains popularity and market share – remember now the only BEVs in the sub £10k market are the Zoe, LEAF, E-UP (and it’s equivalents in other brands), I-Miev (and it’s equivalents in other brands) and a few hard done by Niro/Kona/Soul. These started off as relatively low range and small cars, I dread to think of the available range on a £5k LEAF or Zoe, even £10k might get you a 40kWh battery version that started off at 150ish miles.
I would guess (and that’s pretty much all it would be) that the bigger the vehicle, the longer the ICE demand will stay. If you look at current vans, most big vans are still diesel/petrol and the only battery versions are rather short ranged the Merc has a WLTP of 162, which probably translates to sub 140 and that’s of a 66kWh battery.
Sorry a bit of a ramble.
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Mark