As I have already stated Pops, far too many assumptions are being made about older voters dying off?
Polling just shows a snapshot in time, and will / can change daily, and the same applies to Government statistics, but these tend to be more reliable than Opinion Polls!
Broken down by leave and remain only, not by totals, which include don’t knows etc. – Government statistics on this snapshot, show that 120,000 older assumed ‘leave’ voters have passed on, and altogether it is assumed that leave voters have decreased by some 168000.
Younger ‘assumed remain’ voters as per those reaching 18 and registering to vote ,have increased by some 176000.
So, thus far there potentially is a slight increase in remain voters ( 8000 ) and these are the figures/ statistics regularly quoted by remain – figures which can and do vary on a daily basis !
But, what remain fail to note and supporters either fail to understand, or chose to ignore, is a major point which is also likely to affect any future voting –
Some 344000 more people were registered to vote in 2016 over 2015, so more electors registered overall in time for the referendum- some say encouraged by Remainers ?
Then, (funny this eh,) following the referendum with the job done( but not successfully) things changed, and there were were some 372000 fewer registered electors in 2017/8 over 2016/7 and especially with regard to overseas electors.
So, at first, it seems that remain voting intentions are increasing over time, and remain supporting newspapers published stats to show that in January this year it was projected / estimated that remain voters would now be in the majority?
Also, the assumption is that within the age group 18-44 there is a majority to remain
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Whereas within the age group 44 plus there is a majority to leave
Sounds simple , but unfortunately it’s not ,and this is where the big mistake followed by the big remain con comes in to play –
People get older and as remain constantly promote the idea that older people vote leave, and as confirmed by the polling companies, ‘in the middle age groups there is likely to be substantial movement ‘, and importantly, as these groups get older, they are more likely to vote leave, so this fact alone could easily wipe out the assumptions over deceased and younger voters- but they are ‘off message’ and these facts are ignored !
Also, and very importantly –
Only 40% of 18-24 year old polled are likely to vote , thereby reducing the actual younger remain votes – these facts are also ignored!
Whereas 84-% of 65+ polled will definitely vote, potentially increasing the older Leave votes – these facts are also ignored!
So, Pops, assumptions are being made on simple stats., but the truth is that things are a lot more complicated than remain like to promote, especially also, that people can and do change their mind ( either way ) or possibly just don’t turn out to vote, for whatever reason , including protest votes etc etc,.
So, we simply don’t know what the future holds, and it is dangerous to assume that leave voters are dying off?
Btw I also voted Remain, but Project Fear soon changed my mind!
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