How often (and when) do the scheme prices change? I can see a few sleepless nights occurring around the time I am up for renewal (October)
As BigDave says, the price changes are quarterly. You are currently able to order a new car 3 months before your lease expires. In your case, this means that you can order in either quarter 3 (commencing July) or quarter 4 (commencing October). The smart thing to do is to look at quarter 3 prices and if there is a car that you’d like, and you are happy with the AP, order it then. When the October price list comes out, if the AP of your chosen car drops, ask the dealer to alter the AP on the Motability portal (it doesn’t affect the order, which is separate). It’s best to get the dealer to agree up front that they will do this if required, so as to avoid any issues. It doesn’t affect what the dealer receives for the car (as they get a flat commission per car) but some are reluctant to do it. If they won’t do it, and the price drop is significant, you are able to cancel and re-order. On principle, I would then order at another dealership. The threat of doing this may be enough to get the dealer to soften their stance.
All of the above advice is based upon how the scheme currently operates. As we know, there are changes coming in July which may change things.