I have taken a great deal of interest in politics for almost 50 years, but I’m really struggling now. I’m old enough to remember the economic damage that some previous Labour governments have inflicted, but this lot could take the prize. What makes it even worse is that, IMHO, there isn’t a viable opposition party in waiting. The Tories under Badenoch are a spent force, the Lib Dem’s and Greens will never gain power under our first past the post system (even if they worked together) and whilst Reform currently stand the most chance of forming our next government, they don’t have enough talented people within their ranks to form a credible cabinet, let alone a government. Never before have I felt so worried about our countries future.
As for the budget, my worry is that the things that they should do they seem to have back peddled on. Even though I am retired, I firmly believe that the focus should be on encouraging work. The idea to up the basic rate of tax, whilst reducing NI by the same amount, was an innovative approach that would make a lot of sense (even though I would be adversely affected by it), but Reeves seems to have backed away from it. The pensions triple lock has done its work and now needs to go, as it is unaffordable and arguably unfair, but no party will have the balls to scrap it as the cohort affected by it are those most likely to vote!
Whilst never a popular view on this forum, the U.K.s benefits system needs radical overhaul. Most parties seem to agree on this, including the current government but, like the triple lock, it’s such a hot potato it keeps getting dodged. Sadly, Motability could be a soft target and even though it’s not within the government’s direct control, some harsh words about it on Wednesday could satisfy the public who are calling for change to our benefits culture and it wouldn’t be reliant on the support of Labour back benchers. Obviously the problem with that is that it won’t make a blind bit of difference to the nations finances! However, I think I’ve read that this might be wrapped into a review of PIP due for the end of next year, which would spare Motability this time.
Unfortunately, it looks like the freeze on personal allowances might get extended beyond 2028, as not enough people fully understand the impact of it to make it as electorally unpopular as many other policies. This policy of ‘fiscal drag’ will drag even the poorest pensioners (who rely solely on the state pension) and very low paid workers into taxation plus millions more workers on middle incomes (and retirees with decent private pensions) will become higher rate tax payers.
The only thing that I know for certain is that, in spite of me finding Rachel Reeves style of speech to be every bit as irritating as Keir Starmers, I shall be glued to the budget on Wednesday to see what happens. She seems to have been partly saved by some slightly better than expected forecasts, so it may end up being a lot less dramatic than has been predicted.