@Woodpecker I agree that China is stealing the march when it comes to EVs. The challenge that European governments (including ours) have is that their priorities are (or should be) to ensure robust domestic economies, including employment. The onslaught of cheap Chinese imports is only part of the problem though. The other, and far bigger, issue is that the EV mandates are on a trajectory that consumers are refusing to follow – and that gap will get bigger and bigger as the targets rise.
Until we get to the stage where battery technology has moved on significantly from where it is now (primarily improved real world range and charging times that match the time to refuel an ICE car) the only way that we will get to 100% of new cars sold being EVs is by getting to a situation where the only people who still buy new cars are those who desire an EV and can accommodate one! There are tens of millions of people who do not currently fit that model, so what do they do? They can carry on buying ICE cars whilst they still can (as the vast majority of new car buyers are still doing – even now) or stop buying brand new cars. Unfortunately, the latter is already starting to happen, hence why new car sales are in crisis – as @kezo articulated earlier. Most modern ICE cars will run without major issues for at least 20 years. Yes they will need maintenance, but even the big cost items will cost far less than the depreciation on a new car, especially depreciation on a BEV. Consumers are gradually waking up to this fact, hence why people are keeping their cars longer and longer (the average car on U.K. roads is now 10 years old).
Latest predictions are that it will be the late 2030s / early 2040s before we even get to the stage that over 50% of the cars on U.K. roads will be BEVs. That still leaves tens of millions of ICE cars running around, even then, so the idea that it will be difficult to find places to refuel them is fanciful. The majority of those who have a BEV will continue to charge at home (because it is those who can home charge who will still be in the majority of BEV owners) and the rest will continue to use petrol stations, for which there will be plenty of demand.
So that brings us back to what do governments do? I was looking at current EV discounts and even as a private buyer looking to purchase just one car, many BEVs (including some available through Motability) are available at discounts of up to 32%. Just imagine what sort of discounts Motability Operations are getting with their bulk buying powers. I bet many are circa 40% discounts. That’s just not a sustainable situation for any manufacturer, but they are having to do this to get anywhere near the mandates. As the targets rise even more, the wave will overcome them.
I don’t know enough about EU politics to know whether their governments are as clueless about business and economics as our current U.K. government, but I suspect that they aren’t. All the car manufacturers are lobbying them at present about the resultant state of the automotive industry due to the mandates, and the looming job losses. My bet is that they will be forced to make changes and, when that happens, our government will have no option but to fall into line. The problem is how much damage can be done between now and then.? I don’t see this Labour government getting a second term and, as things stand, the most likely outcome is a Reform UK & Conservative coalition (even though they both say they won’t do it, they will if it’s their only route to power in order to oust Labour). Both of those parties are talking about scrapping the mandates. Interesting times ahead, but I’m glad that my livelihood isn’t dependent on the automotive sector!