My last post on this.
I have been a contributor to this forum for many years. During this time there have been several other EV enthusiasts who have tried to shut down debate when I, and others, have offered a view that the mandates are unachievable and dates would have to change. Each time when we have been proved right these posters miraculously disappear and never return to apologise for their ridiculing posts.
The only prediction that Harry Metcalfe makes in the video is that he believes that EV take up will level out at about 50%. I’ve no idea whether that’s going to be proved right or not, but will it ever get to 100%?- absolutely not IMHO for a multitude of reasons that I won’t repeat again here. All the other figures used are industry provided statistics, not ‘made up to suit an argument’ and the press articles shown about sector wide job losses are mostly from trade and financial publications.
Harry Metcalfe was once engaged by Jaguar as a consultant on their new Special Vehicle Operations. That was years ago and he’s not ‘on their payroll’. Like all other motoring journalists (and the press in general) he was extremely critical of their recent brand relaunch. I first became aware of him when another reviewer (in his 30s, so no dinosaur) referred to him as the motoring journalists that other motoring journalists respect. I’ve never heard him referred to as a joke and think that’s a cheap shot.
It’s a great shame (and unique to this forum) that anyone who expresses a view that EV take up won’t be as high as governments hope is brandished ‘anti EV’ and ridiculed. He is certainly not anti-EV. Maybe the doubters should watch his review of the new Renault 5 EV which he raved about. All he is doing is saying what is, to most people (other than governments and those who steadfastly refuse to see the bigger picture) blindingly obvious.
New car sales are at much lower levels now than they were some years ago. EV take up remains low as a percentage of new cars sold (even now just 15% across the EU) and consumers are keeping their cars longer than ever. The average age of cars on U.K. roads is now 10 years old. That’s an average, so for every car that is less than 10 years old, there is one that is greater than 10 years old!
Is it a “fact” that by 2030 it will be impossible to buy an ICE car? No. It’s a target. These targets have moved before and if Europe wants a car industry left they will have to move again. Time will tell but, as before, I predict that those who are most vocal and ridicule those who suggest otherwise won’t still be posting here to eat humble pie when the inevitable happens!