It’s really getting quite difficult to see what the real strategy is from manufacturers around their BEV plans. As soon as someone senior even hints at pushing development plans back then some press will be reporting dramatic changes to policy and a potential dropping of EV development. Meanwhile, reality could be anything from a design snag they’re trying to solve or a delay waiting for testing of the next big battery improvement. Demand has slowed, I’m pretty sure for all cars, as confidence in the economy becomes a little shaken with all this ‘black hole’ stuff the new government is stating. Until there’s a budget showing exactly what the spending and taxation plans look like everyone seems to be putting off big spends. There needs to be further clarity from the top on BEV deadlines, I’ve heard that 2030 is back but it’s been so quiet that I’m unsure of its validity. If the government actually want this deadline shifting, they need to be bigger and louder than when it was pushed back and they need to tackle the propaganda certain aspects of the media are still spouting despite being debunked several times over. Meanwhile, confidence in used BEVs appears to be uncertain. When you buy a petrol car at 3 years old you’re pretty confident it’s going to be relatively reliable for the next 3 years. Due to a lack of history showing any pattern, it seems too many are less confident of the mechanically simpler BEV being equally as reliable with the focus being on the high voltage system which is mostly still in warranty. Until the massive uplift in models from the 2018-2022 releases have been through that 6 year cycle the press nonsense about batteries failing and costing more than the car is worth will perpetuate. All this has a long term effect on residual value which Motability appears to be spreading throughout the scheme. You’d hope that if a car had a low residual the AP for that car would reflect this, yet there are BEVs still reducing or maintaining their APs whilst others are being clobbered. I’ve no confidence in the validity of the video, it all reads to me as general bluster that might appease some complaints but only from those who don’t look any deeper into what’s happening everywhere else.
You make alot of sense mate.
I think Fiat CEO, was one the last, to confirm Fiats intention to bring out a new petrol car, due to a ‘slower than anticipated uptake of EVs across Europe’ in an interview with Autocar. However, I believe by looking at the VW group, is a good indicator of whats happening with the BEV market overall. Their anti lay off policy, showed strong determination in the sector but, has only led to the treat of strike action, due to the closure of plants in Germany. Earlier in the year, we saw Volvo sell the majority of its struggling Polestar shares to its owner Geely. So yes real demand has slowed in the sector and perhaps a natural migration would have been the better way to go, rather than governments across europe setting out unrealistic demands?
Personally, I can’t see how a Labour or any other UK government can deviate away, from dates set by EUrope, where the majority of cars are made for the european market. The EU, has already U turned on its 2035 deadline by allowing more carbon neutral vehicles to be sold after 2035. At the same time, there is a growing number of countries, who want the deadline to be pushed back further. Only in March this year, the heads of BMW, Volkswagen, and Renault have spoken out against European Union’s emission targets arguing that the phase-out rules put too much pressure on the industry and that consumers aren’t buying EVs fast enough.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Motability allows itself to be used. By that I mean, manufacturers off loading vehicles at a cheaper price than they would otherwise do so, to help meet their ZEV targets and once the targets are close to being met, renogotiate higher prices during the latter quaters of the year. If this is indeed their intentions, BEV’s will see AP fluctuations throughout the year with the potential of higher AP’s for those manufacturers who have met their target and possible increases, to limit the affect of fines with those manufacturers who haven’t met the current years target.