As Intranicity says, it’s a complete gamble. There is no pattern whatsoever to AP’s. They go up and down for no apparent reason. Each new quarter brings surprises, mostly nasty ones but often some good ones too. No specific quarter is better or worse than others. However, this forum is a great place to get advance sight of some of the next quarter price lists in the days leading up to each new quarter.
We are due to change at the end of March. Unfortunately there are no cars on the Motability scheme at present that are perfect for us, so my intention is to look at the price lists as they are released on here towards the end of March. If between now and then we decide on a particular car and I can establish the Q2 price no later than 31st March, then if it is going up in Q2 I will order on 31st March and if it’s going down I will delay ordering until 1st April. Alternatively I will extend the current lease for 2 years, which doesn’t mean that you are locked in to another 2 years as you can order a new car at any time within the two years. This can be useful as you can then ‘pounce’ on any car that may suddenly come on the scheme.