Of course, none of us know, we can only speculate. Anything dealers say is usually BS. They generally find out what’s going on after we do! They are rarely privy to any advanced information in so far as Motability is concerned. We have obviously been warmed up to expect AP increases / less choice etc due to a potential no deal Brexit, but I think if that does come to pass it will be short term. I suspect we will end up with some sort of deal at a minute to midnight, but if we don’t car manufacturers will have to absorb some of the tariffs themselves to remain competitive and that’s before you get to sales incentives etc.
The AP’s we pay don’t just cover the costs of the car (over and above sacrificed benefits). Motability Operations make a sizeable profit on each and every car that they lease. It won’t be in their interest to drive a lot of us away from the scheme as their profits will fall. Keep in mind that for every single Motability customer there are two others who are eligible to join the scheme but don’t, either because they want the £10k sacrificed benefits every 3 years for themselves or choose to fund their own car (which doesn’t have to be a brand new one).
We are due to change at the end of Q1 so will see what the quarter brings. I wouldn’t be surprised if the list is a bit late being released and we may see far more ‘mid quarter’ changes than we are used to. If the list disappoints we may extend the lease on our current car or exit the scheme and go private. Time will tell.