Reply To: The Autumn 2025 Budget What Your Predictions (Keep it Civil)

#318050
Glos Guy
Participant

    @AndyDStone I agree with much (but not all) of what you say, but I think that most people’s disappointment is that Labour inherited a bad situation and, over a year later, have made it far worse!

    The two big areas where we differ are Brexit (the Tory PM of the time campaigned against it, but the electorate voted for it). OK, it was him who authorised the referendum, and many wish that he hadn’t, but there was so much noise about it at the time and we do live in a democracy, so whether we agree with the outcome or not, it had to be put to the vote. It was the same with the Scottish independence referendum and many aren’t happy with the result of that either, but that’s democracy in action

    Secondly Covid. Leaving aside the peripheral issues of daft behaviour by those who should have known better (whilst imposing questionable restrictions on the rest of us), the main financial issues that the last government left, and this one inherited, were as a result of the support measures put in place to keep people in employment (furlough etc). We could have done nothing and let millions become unemployed, but a different decision was taken.

    Then we have this farcical ‘noise’ about a supposed £22bn “black hole”. Even the left leaning BBC (through it’s fact check service) has stated that 50% of this was created due to the policies of the incoming Labour government! Also, in the scale of a national economy the size of ours, £22bn is almost an irrelevance. In one year alone, as a country we spend £1,050 bn, so the £22bn equates to just 2% of one year or, more relevantly, 0.4% a year over a parliament. Any of us who have run businesses know that a cost saving task of this scale is just par for the course and doesn’t result in a major change in strategic direction.

    My biggest worry though is the economic illiteracy of this government. It would be funny, if it wasn’t so serious, that as a sole private individual, I have more business experience than the whole cabinet combined! It was obvious to anyone who understands business that the last budgets hike to employer NI would result in a rise in unemployment and, lo and behold, it has. The same applies to today’s 4.1% hike in living / minimum wage, which costs the exchequer nothing (even though she will take the credit for it as if it’s the government being generous and ‘giving’ something) but forces cost increases on the sectors that are struggling the most (hospitality etc). The landlord of our local pub told me how much the last budgets hike added to his cost base and he confided in me that it had made his business perilous. Today’s announcement could be the final nail in the coffin, and I have a horrible feeling that it might be the tipping point for many small businesses, so those who today celebrate their pay increase may find their jubilation short lived when they end up unemployed.

    As I said in my earlier post, I have never felt so despondent about the state of our country. We have a car crash government and no viable or credible opposition party ready to save us. I agree with you about the Lib Dem’s, as being the best of a bad bunch but, as you say, our first past the post system will prevent them from ever taking power – and they didn’t like being in coalition, even though I thought that government did some good work (pension freedoms etc). It’s all very depressing.