Whatever happened to Brexit?

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  • #111208 Reply
    brydo

    We are now into April and its likely there will be no negotiations until this pandemic is over. What are we looking at, could we survive on WTO rules, will we ask for an extension?

    I think the obvious option is to agree an extension possibly to next March to give both sides a chance to come to an agreement. I think the German’s will be very keen to get a deal.

Viewing 25 replies - 101 through 125 (of 160 total)
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  • #131875 Reply
    Georgie

    I’m getting a headache from banging my head against the wall.  I will try to explain it one last time, in simple terms, and then I’m done.

    Flights between the UK and the EU are at risk because, without a deal in place, the EU can quite simply withdraw Operating Licenses and stop recognising our European Safety Certificates.  This would mean we could no longer use their airports and facilities.  Any Airlines that are not majority-owned and controlled by the EU, the EEA, or Swiss nationals are therefore at risk of losing their ‘Right to fly’ into the EU.  Airlines at risk included EasyJet, Ryanair, and British Airways.  That’s it.  Done.  Finito.  British ‘planes grounded – all fuelled up with no where to go.  There are plenty of EU-based ‘economy’ airlines in particular would be delighted to see EasyJet and Ryanair fold so they could take over the routes.

    However, because the possibility of Britain exiting Europe without a Deal is now a pressing issue for all the companies that do business across borders, the EU has produced a contingency plan to keep vital supply-lines moving and allow limited Tourism.  It will allow us to continue flying to and from a single destination in the EU for another 6 months, during which time the affected Airlines can apply for new ‘Right to fly’ (unless some ‘Deal’ can be thrashed out in the meantime) and arrange for their European Safety Certificates to be replaced by Civil Aviation Authority-backed certification.  Britain would be expected to provide equal access to EU Airlines along the same lines.

    The International Air Transport Association (IATA) have issued a statement regarding the EU proposal:

    “We welcome the Commission’s publication of the proposed contingency plan for air services and aviation safety and we urge the UK to publish its proposal as soon as possible. We would prefer the certainty of a complete and final Brexit deal and hope that this can still be negotiated. However, in the absence of a deal then this contingency will be vital for a seamless continuation of air connectivity.

    “The contingency plan offers the chance to minimise disruption for passengers, but in addition to waiting for the UK to reciprocate, there remain issues which airlines will need to see clarified, including the transfer of passenger name record data from the EU to UK to be GDPR compliant. The maximum six-month time frame is also a concern as it does not leave much time to agree a more comprehensive long-term solution.”

     

    #131877 Reply
    Brydo

    The fat lady is warming up her pipes, is a no deal end in site?

    What does BJ do, does he accept the deal on offer, and rely on labour to see him through this shambles or does he keep the Tory back benchers with him and go for no deal.

    He CAN’T accept the deal on offer, it would be political suicide for him something he would never recover from politically. The ERG would hound him out of office as soon as they could and he knows that.

    There are those behind the scenes already plotting his removal, accepting this deal would be the final nail in his coffin.

    #131882 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    Georgie, what you are talking about is a bureaucratic technicality. It’s just the paperwork.  No one’s going to stop planes flying.  Please give up on the scaremongering.

    #131902 Reply
    Georgie

    Once again you hit back with solidly researched facts and a sound argument.

    Wake up and smell the coffee, Wigwam.  Even the Brexit Champions know Britain is stuffed and the brown stuff’s about to hit the fan:

    Rees-Mogg moved his money to Ireland

    Dyson moved his production to Malaysia and now moved his HQ from Wiltshire to Singapore,

    Ratcliffe moved himself and his money to Monaco and is now moving his Ineos Automotive ‘Grenadier’ and Daimler ‘Smart EQ’ production plants from their proposed site in Wales (“a significant expression of confidence in British manufacturing”) to  France –  “The site’s location on the French-German border, only 200km from Stuttgart, gives excellent access to supply chains, automotive talent and target markets.”

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/brexiteer-billionaire-moves-grenadier-production-to-eu/09/12/

     

    #131916 Reply
    Wigwam

    Georgie, if you want solid researched arguements they are readily available. Why should I bother trying to change your view. The reality is there will be great changes, some good, some bad and it will take a while for the UK and the EU to adjust to our new position in the world  .

    For me, as a believer in democracy and the nation state, it’s enough we are escaping the clutches of an undemocratic technocracy.

     

    #131921 Reply
    Georgie

    It’ not “Why should I bother” it’s just ‘I swallow everyhint the Daily Express prints. Like Trump, you have nothing to support your claims.

     

    And as for “escaping the clutches of an undemocratic technocracy” we are, instead, returning to an undemocratic aristocracy where the elite controls the Government, Business is King and the workers are paid as little as possible (got to keep the shareholders happy),

    As for those who can’t work . . . ?  UK disabled have been protected to a remarkable degree by EU legislation, while the Tories have inflicted untold misery.   In 2017 the UN released a report absolutely condemning Tory treatment of the disabled during austerity (disabled adversely affect 19 times harder than the national average) – Tory response was “We don’t recognise those findings” and nothing changed.  You really believe they’re going to give a damn about us now?

    #131927 Reply
    Mike 700
    Participant

    Georgie, if you want solid researched arguements they are readily available. Why should I bother trying to change your view. The reality is there will be great changes, some good, some bad and it will take a while for the UK and the EU to adjust to our new position in the world . For me, as a believer in democracy and the nation state, it’s enough we are escaping the clutches of an undemocratic technocracy.

     

     

    We accept that north of the border certain politicians are constantly using the term ‘this Tory government ‘ and this ‘Tory hard Brexit’, & the UK government, always in a derogatory fashion, attempting to ‘subliminally’ plant anti Tory anti Westminster, anti UK messages in voter’s, and especially young people’s , minds, they hate the UK with a passion, but they do not try to hide it.

    Then we have the EU supporters in the rest of the Uk, who follow the EU line, to the letter, doing down their own country at every opportunity, especially the PM! who has been cast as a womanising , child eating, pet kicking archetypal toffee nosed ,lying , cheating Tory clown leading a ragbag army of crooked Government Ministers.

    He has been criticised, laughed at , sworn at and generally been accused of crimes against Humanity but the truth is that he stands up for the Uk and the majority Which is anathema to remainers, and frankly, the rumoured proposals from the EU, could not be supported by any UK Government , irrespective of Political Party!

    Further, Flights , air corridors, overflying etc are not controlled by the EU, and are unlikely to ever be, except perhaps in times of war, and there would be civil war in the EU if holiday flights etc were curtailed by the little men hiding in Brussels!

    (I remember flying up the central air corridor from Cologne/Bonn to Tempelhof back in the early sixties ( Cold War ) shadowed each side by a MIG, ostensibly of the GDR., (but they communicated in Russian) , and they were ensuring that we didn’t stray outside of the corridor, but this is not the Cold War it is a negotiation on a potential Free trade agreement only )

    Customs checks , immigration checks etc at airports are the responsibility of the member countries and therefore the EU! But not aircraft movements!

    Why on earth aircraft movements and also police and security cooperation should even be discussed in the same breath as a ‘trade’ agreement” is beyond reason !

    When it comes to politics, facts and plain simple truths seem to have taken a back seat, to be replaced by highly emotional opinions , especially coming from the remain camp who are reacting with glee that ‘our ‘ Country is being shafted by the EU.

    Project Fear has been given a free ride on the Gravy Train that most remainers are also passengers on, but that train is heading into the sidings , with remainers blindly partying all the way- until it hits the buffers!

    Project Fear proponents only ever see the Costs, problems etc, from the UK side , prophets of doom , doing down their own country, and rarely if ever mentioning the costs , problems etc that the EU will face.

    WTO rules will cost the UK of course, but Brexiteers knew that there would be a cost to leaving, from Day 1, but we will save net of some £8 billion in EU membership fees alone,, which initially will be utilised to compensate for WTO additional costs- but it is hardly ever mentioned by Project Fear supporters, that tariffs will hit the EU as well as the UK, causing financial disaster in some states .

    Both Ireland and Holland are , today, forecasting disaster for their economies, and others are beginning to realise the enormity of how a ‘no deal’ scenario will hit their economies and employment etc etc

    Even the major economies like Germany and France will be hit hard by a no deal Brexit, with massive job losses- French fishing of course will be decimated, and by their own President putting his sIze 9 in?

    Then we get the remainers rubbing their hands together over the potential lorry queues at the Tunnel, but no mention of the EU Lorries heading for the uk nor the queues wanting access to the UK.

    Project Fear projects one side of the story only , and what they say should be taken with a large shovel full of salt!

     

    VW Tiguan SEL in Silver White.

    #131933 Reply
    Mike 700
    Participant

    Sorry DDR

    VW Tiguan SEL in Silver White.

    #131941 Reply
    rox
    Blocked

    I get knock down but i get up again and the eu fails to understand the uk and it’s people and insults them on a regular basis, and that has always been the case and one of the reasons many voted to leave.

    IMO it was always going to be this way. The eu cannot give us a good deal as then others will want to leave and that undermines the eu or if we are successful out side the eu (which i think we will be) then others in the eu will think we could do the same.

    So the only deal they the eu will do is a poor one for the uk as it sets us as an example to others and that is the eu right there and why i want no part of the eu and it’s political union just to trade goods.

    You can see how sour they are and look i am in no illusion of what the short term holds but long term we the uk want to be a beacon of free trade and i think we can do alot better than the eu and thats what the eu are scared of and want a level playing field to keep us restricted as then the eu falls apart.

    We are the test case, we are the first to leave. we must be mand an example off. They cannot handle it or the loss of our money, plus we had to give them another 1 billion as we did better than expected even with all the doom and gloom you hear and how we will fall off a cliff., 4.5 years later and still they want to delay.

    No the time has come to walkaway. like I would from a car dealer that was messing me about and thats their loss, french cars, french chesse, french wine etc. I think we import more french stuff than we export and no fish from our waters either..  So who’s the biggest loser france. Who did we rescue from the germans, who done ever so well out of the eu and they will lose alot of car sales to the uk as well. As many will buy cars made in the uk like alot of other countries do around the world. How many fiats are driven in italy for instance, alot and manly french cars in france alot more than any other make that’s forsure.

    So why cannot the uk be the same, if you pay no tarrifs then choice will be limited unless you pay the extra. Nissian and toyota will do well i feel.. As on a 25k car 10% is 2.5k As for flights (if true) we can all go holiday outside the eu then. If thats what the the eu leaders want i am sure it’s not what the people want in the tourism trade or buisness wants to happen, because of the eu’s stance we go elsewhere for our goods or pick other alternatives from outside the eu.. I am looking forward to buying silver from perth mint and around the world once we have trade deals inplace, rather than having to buy it from germany as they have something called the margin scheme and only charge 7% tax where as in the uk and other eu countries one must pay 20% vat A 13% edge the germans have. How is it possible that a coin made in the uk is cheaper to buy from a german dealer than direct from the source The royal mint because of the tax scam / workaround that gives the germans an advantage.

    #131942 Reply
    Mike 700
    Participant

    Yup.

    VW Tiguan SEL in Silver White.

    #131948 Reply
    Georgie

    What we import from the EU will be more expensive under WTO rules so prices will rise.  What we export to the EU (43% of all our exports) will be more expensive for them to buy so the EU will just buy what they used to buy from us more cheaply from other EU countries.  Britain’s Tax income from Exports will fall, businesses who export goods will go under, jobs will be lost = less people to pay Taxes = Income Tax income will fall = less for the Government to spend on stuff like schools, police, unemployment benefits, housing benefits, the NHS, Social Care = Tax rises for those who still have jobs.

    Still, we’ve now got the Navy tied up patrolling the Channel (to sink stray fishing boats and the odd dingy full of non-EU immigrants, or what’s the point?  Everyone knows Britain is a paper tiger).

    #131951 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    #131954 Reply
    Georgie

    Because it would be lying.  I’m still waiting for that list of ’10 Positive Things (for Britain) that have resulted from Brexit’ – beyond being covered in fairy dust and knee-deep in unicorn-sh*te.

    Meanwhile. back in the Real World we actually have to live in, UK Financial Services have lost half a trillion pounds since the Referendum.  Half a trillion pounds.  We also expect to lose another £1.2 trillion of future Trade.

    https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/09/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-fs-firms-continue-moving-staff-ahead-of-brexit-deadline

     

    #131957 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    Have you asked yourself, Georgie, why the EU have been fighting tooth and nail for four and a half years to make it so hard for us to leave?

    #131963 Reply
    Georgie

    Have they?  I just asked Google “How has the EU made it difficult to Britain to leave?” and found no evidence.

    Just another point – If you think the ‘illegal immigrant’ problem is bad now, due to our total lack of planning, for the first six months of 2021 the UK are only going to apply ‘minimal checks’ on lorries entering the UK (mostly lorries carrying medicines, alcohol and tobacco) and have to wave the rest through unless they want 10,000 lorries every day creating 7 mile tailbacks every day.  This fact has been well publicised – I’m sure they know about it on the other side of the Channel and why the hell should the French bother stopping them now?  At least they used to make some effort (remember all those Camps – The Jungle, etc?) but now we’re out of the EU it will no longer be a problem.

    France will be checking every single lorry entering from the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46064836

     

    #131967 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    I reject your other point as nonsense, Georgie.  I’m surprised you think asking Google a question will give you an answer!  You really need to read outside your bubble.

    #131983 Reply
    Georgie

    Mrs. Tharg is back in Hospital.  Support needed on the Off Topic “What’s the weather like” thread.

    #131987 Reply
    Mike 700
    Participant

    There is a salutary lesson to be learned here, and that is ‘’ 40 plus years, after De Gaulle finally relented and allowed to join his little club , at an extremely high membership fee, they still do not like us , or have forgiven us for saving their bacon  in 1939- 45. De Gaulle never forgave us from saving him and France from the Nazi hordes!

    The Common Fisheries Policy has been a  National Disaster for the UK, as U.K. fishing was and remains decimated , to allow  the French to plunder our coastal waters , and then there is the waste , perhaps , millions of tons of fish by throwing them back to die- did I mention the extremely high membership fee???..

    The Common Agriculture  Policy has caused artificially high food prices, in order to pay huge amounts to keep peasant farmers alive – mainly French! Some will argue that without a ride on the gravy train UK farming would suffer, and that is true, but who pays the fare – the UK. Taxpayers of course and each and every one of us via artificially high food  prices.

    Btw have I mentioned the extremely high membership fee?

    The numbers of people employed by the EU is costing billions each year , mainly to keep the two policies above going.

    So then we come to one of Project Fear’s main arguments ( as with all their nonsense, A totally one sided bias towards the EU ) the multi million miles of trucks lined up at Dover with drivers starting out quite young , but collecting their pensions before they get to the Boat or Chunnel – ok I exaggerate, a bit,  but there are two sides to every story, and the other side is based in Calais, where the Port chief, and the local Mayor are apparently going nuts over the lack of a deal as they are going to be overwhelmed  – so, damage on both sides

    VW Tiguan SEL in Silver White.

    #131990 Reply
    Georgie

    Damage all caused by BRITAIN.  Can you blame them if they’re now happy to see us sink?  French port authorities must be seriously sick of us by now.

    #131991 Reply
    Brydo

    I voted to remain and I would again but we are now looking at a new horizon. Come January many things will change, with or without a deal, and we need to make the most of it. If the fears of many remainers is realised, with a no deal agreement being reached, we could be in for a very difficult few years.

    How we best move forward is pretty clear if we land with no deal forging other FTA will be imperative. A number of our goods, normally sold to the EU will not be competitive so other markets will need to be found. The government could mitigate these tariffs by subsidies but I’m not sure how viable this is long term.

    A good deal would obviously be the best outcome giving us time to grow into this new found “freedom”. So fingers crossed for a deal we can live with and I final thought………..
    <p style=”text-align: center;”>BUY BRITISH!</p>

    #131996 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    I hope we leave on WTO terms and wait for the EU to offer a Canada style deal which wouldn’t be long coming. No level playing field nonsense, no juristiction of the European Court and full control over our territorial waters and who fishes in them.  We were never offered a choice of leave the EU with strings attached.  This nonsense has gone on too long thanks to Cameron and May.

    #132000 Reply
    Brydo

    No we want a deal before we leave, it’s more likely we will run back to the EU, cap in hand, begging to get a deal of any kind.

    #132012 Reply
    Georgie

    Here’s fun – if the British Government had given every single British fisherman £1 million it would have cost us less than we’ve wasted fighting for our ‘Fishing Rights’ (worth less than 5% to the Economy).

    As for the ‘Canada-type Deal’ –  The ‘Canada-type Deal’ is a Free Trade Deal between Canada and the EU – like we used to have when we were in the EU.  Canada trades by adhering to EU ‘rules’ and EU trades adhering to Canadian ‘rules’.

    Hate to Rain on your Parade, but every single Trade Deal we make involves having to adhere to the other country’s rules.  Sell car parts to Japan?  Then they have to adhere to Japanese standards.  Want to export meat to the EU?  Then it will have to meet EU standards.

    If we don’t want to be in the EU because we don’t want to trade by EU rules then we have to Trade using other ‘rules’ – WTO rules = tariffs.  If WTO rules are so wonderful how come the only other country trading under them is Mauritania.

     

     

    #132014 Reply
    Wigwam
    Participant

    I don’t know why I’m allowing myself to be suckered into this, Georgie but in relation to your 4 points.

    Yes our fishing industry is small, but it wasn’t before the EU and it won’t be if we take back control of it. Why do you think fishing in UK waters is so important to the EU? Because it’s a big industry!

    Every country sells goods into every other country’s market by meeting that country’s standards. That’s nothing to do with the Canada deal, that’s how markets work. It’s how the whole world trades!!!

    Mauretania??  The EU trades with the USA and every other country it doesn’t have a trade agreement with under WTO rules.

    Dear me…

     

    #132017 Reply
    Georgie

    Great news.  Seriously.  Not kidding or being sarcastic.

    Break-though regarding as least some aspects of an acceptable ‘Deal’ – On a product by product basis, Goods we trade with the EU that already meet EU standards could be exported without a tariff, and the same in reverse.  It would keep both sides honest on maintaining quality with minimum delay and lower, if any, additional costs.  If standards drop at any point, on either side, tariffs get applied.

    Boris has repeated stated that he wants to not only maintain high standards, but improve them, meaning the EU would have to ‘raise their game’ in some cases to keep up with us.  Watching Boris making his Statement, he looks positively happy.

    This is the best news I heard regarding Brexit since June, 2016.  I’ve said before, I hope Boris does ‘pull and blinder’ – and this could actually be one.  He’d be crazy not to agree.

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