- This topic has 2 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 1 month, 1 week ago by .
When Volvo Cars revealed the fully electric Volvo C40 Recharge the other day, one of the most notable parts of the announcement was Volvo’s strong commitment to 100% fully electric vehicle sales by 2030 (and 50% by 2025). In fact, Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson made such a strong statement that it warranted a whole extra article.
Here’s the wording on the big statement from the 70-year-old Swede: “I am totally convinced there will be no customers who really want to stay with a petrol engine.” Sounds like a CleanTechnica reader! That said, assuming he’s right, we’ve got a major issue to address and pontificate on. Let me start by putting the short summary and some backup comments in a bullet list:
So, for the market overall, there is not presumed to be anywhere close to 100% EV market share in 2030 (unless you want to conclude that battery mineral mining experts and Elon Musk are far too bearish).
Does that mean Mr. Samuelsson’s comments are ridiculous? Not at all! In fact, that makes his comments all the more fascinating. Let’s consider a few of the implications.
First of all, if the Volvo Cars CEO is correct, yet there isn’t production capacity for more than, say, 50 million electric cars per year in 2030, then there is a question as to where the demand for 50 million non-electric cars comes from. Even if more than 50 million EVs can’t be produced, will the “Osborne effect” kick in on a large scale and kill demand for 50 million non-electric cars per year?
Notably, if that’s the case, then assumptions about what percentage of sales are electric in 2030 get warped! Assumptions of 80 to 100 million automobile sales in 2030 when there’s production capacity for 40–50 million electric cars (bullish by industry standards) imply that there won’t be a significant EV Osborne effect at that stage. Mr. Samuelsson disagrees, and so do I. How will people think it makes sense to by 40–50 non-electric cars in 2030?
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.