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The Scottish Conservative (and Unionist) party has enjoyed something of resurgence in recent years under the energetic leadership of Ruth Davidson.
The party’s opponents are convinced that Boris Johnson as prime minister could put an end to all that – and could even put an end to the union between Scotland the rest of the UK.
It’s true that Mr Johnson could hardly be more different from the down to earth, plain speaking and Remain-voting Ms Davidson. The two are not friends and have vehemently disagreed before.
Some observers like to speculate that Boris will appear to Scottish voters to be the very epitome of the upper-class English ruling caste that Scots so dislike. But policy may well prove to be more important than personality.
Mr Johnson appeared to have a weak grasp of the dynamics of devolution when he proposed tax changes that take no account of the fact that income tax rates in Scotland are set by the Scottish Parliament.
But since then he has promised Scottish Tory MPs he will set up a “union unit” inside No 10 to check every policy. If he knows what he doesn’t know, then maybe he can avoid these gaffes as PM.
It’s Brexit that may be his undoing, in so many ways. In Remain-voting Scotland, his problem is that the idea of a no deal Brexit is far less palatable than it is in the rest of the UK. The harder the Brexit Boris delivers, the more the Tory party in Scotland could suffer.
If Prime Minister Johnson [he will officially take on the role this Wednesday] pursues a Brexit policy at odds with what most voters in Scotland would like to see, then it’s possible they may change their minds about whether remaining part of the UK is in their best interests. Some recent polling evidence suggests as many as 60% of voters could vote “yes” to independence if we leave the EU with no deal.
In the end it may not be the precise details of any Brexit deal that stokes desire for independence – or indeed the character of any individual politician – but a sense that Scotland has different aspirations from the rest of the UK, which can’t be reconciled within the current union.
If Mr Johnson wants to keep the kingdom united, he will need to take care not fan those flames.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.
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I like it fwipperie you are predicting next week will be unpredictable lol
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.As the thread title suggests i think the appointment of BJ could split the UK, a recent poll suggests this may be the case.
Another poll suggests English voters would prefer to leave the EU even if it resulted in the break up of the UK.
My Scotland poll: Yes to independence takes the lead
Monday, 5 August, 2019 in ScotlandBy Lord Ashcroft
In the wake of Boris Johnson’s visit to Edinburgh last week I polled Scots to measure support for a second independence referendum and to gauge opinion on independence itself. I found a small majority in favour of a new vote – and the first lead for an independent Scotland for more than two years.
I found 47% agreeing that there should be another referendum on Scottish independence within the next two years (First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has demanded a new vote by 2021), with 45% disagreeing.
Asked how they would vote in such a contest, 46% said they would vote Yes to independence, and 43% No. Excluding those who say they don’t know or wouldn’t vote, this amounts to a lead of 52% to 48% for an independent Scotland. This is the first lead for independence in a published poll since an Ipsos MORI survey in March 2017, and the biggest lead since a spate of polls in June 2016, shortly after the UK voted to leave the EU.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.Article.
Boris Johnson is threatening to sabotage the EU to make it cave in on a Brexit deal – or reject MPs’ plan to stop the UK crashing out of the bloc.
In a dramatic escalation of its battle with Brussels, Downing Street believes it has devised a way out of the crisis to make the EU no longer “legally constituted”, paralysing its decision-making.
The extraordinary plan would see the UK refuse to appoint a commissioner, putting the EU in breach of its own legal duty for all 28 member states to be represented on its executive branch.
No 10 believes the UK would be “disrupting” Brussels life to such a degree that member states will then make it clear they will refuse to grant an Article 50 extension – even if asked for.
A source said: “We will turn the pressure onto the EU to show how difficult it will be for them if the UK is still hanging around.”
Article. Boris Johnson is threatening to sabotage the EU to make it cave in on a Brexit deal – or reject MPs’ plan to stop the UK crashing out of the bloc. In a dramatic escalation of its battle with Brussels, Downing Street believes it has devised a way out of the crisis to make the EU no longer “legally constituted”, paralysing its decision-making. The extraordinary plan would see the UK refuse to appoint a commissioner, putting the EU in breach of its own legal duty for all 28 member states to be represented on its executive branch. No 10 believes the UK would be “disrupting” Brussels life to such a degree that member states will then make it clear they will refuse to grant an Article 50 extension – even if asked for. A source said: “We will turn the pressure onto the EU to show how difficult it will be for them if the UK is still hanging around.”
Even if Boris does manage to leave the EU with No Deal, it would just signal the beginning of long drawn out negotiations about future trading terms and copious other ‘agreements’. The EU would then take bitter delight in shafting the UK in retaliation at every opportunity.
Attempting to sabotage the day to day business of the EU prior to these essential negotiations would be hugely damaging to our future prospects as an ‘independent’ entity.
It’s an infantile and ill conceived plan.
The EU would take bitter delight in shafting the UK? Isn’t that what the withdrawal agreement May agreed to tried to do?
If we leave without a deal, the first thing on the agenda when trying to agree a future relationship will be the backstop, then the money we owe the Eu.
Leaving with no deal serves only the Tories in their battle for the right with Farage.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.Which parts of the deal are you talking about Wigwam.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.We haven’t been offered any deal Brydo. The withdrawal agreement is not a deal. It requires us to keep tied to the EU for years to come, prevents us making trade agreements, keeps EU law, stops us making farming and fishing policies and does not even create a trade agreement with the EU, let alone paying £39 billion for the privilege.
So if we leave without a deal, we can get on straight away with those things the WA denies us.
Wigwam it is a deal, it’s just a deal that is unacceptable to you, and many others.
Do you think all of these things will magically disappear if we leave with no deal?
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.If we leave without a deal, we will be free of all the restraints the EU wish to impose in us. We than have to agree a trade agreement, which the “Deal” does not include. So to answer your question – YES.
It only takes 1 country to block an extension. Suppose the UK offer to return one of the sovereign bases to Cyprus as a goodwill gesture in exchange…..? I can see the whole Brexit thing being sorted out in the courts. An election could produce a majority government with just 30% of the vote. Would people who say we have a parliamentary democracy then say that was undemocratic?
“If we leave without a deal, we will be free of all the restraints the EU wish to impose in us. We than have to agree a trade agreement, which the “Deal” does not include. So to answer your question – YES.”
NO WE WON’T.
All of the above will be included in any deal we get with the Eu.
There are millions of EU residents living in Britain, the EU will want to ensure their status and well being, so they will want a say in any laws that effect them.
The £39B is now about £30B and we are legally commited to pay about £8B so about £22B is up for grabs and the EU will want most of it to be paid before they agree a deal.
The Irish backstop won’t just go away it will need to be dealt with.
So not a lot changes with a hard brexit, just pain for a lot UK residents and maybe the break up of the UK.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.Fwipperie I think it is highly unlikely, if not impossible, to win an overall majority with just 30% of the vote. In fact 30.7% of the popular vote is the Tories WORST EVER result in a general election since 1918.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.I see Aileen Foster is visiting London today. Significant? I feel we shall have an election in November .
I think BJ is about to tell her northern island will be disconnected from the EU in an atempt to get rid of the backstop. Stormont is in line to get more money and more responsibility when this happens. Mrs May’s deal, or a version of it, will be brought back to Parliament for another go.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.For Eu read UK
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.<p style=”text-align: left;”>I agree Wigwam. Unless BJ delivers a clean WTO Brexit he fears the Tories will haemorrhage votes to the Brexit party and I think he would be happier fighting a people v parliament election having been forced to extend Brexit. The latter I think he would have a good chance of winning but not the former.</p>
Wigwam I try to do it every day lol.
The difficulty in predicting any thing is that things change on a daily basis.
A hard Brexit is looking less likely, certainly before a GE, and to leave before the 31st October with a deal leaves Mrs May’s deal as the only show in town.
I’m happy to hear any other scenarios you guy’s have.
The only person who got all his work done by Friday was Robinson Crusoe.
Anything i post over three lines long please assume it is an article lol.
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