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Until things start to calm down which, given the fact that the U.S. didn’t foresee and plan for the consequences of their actions, is likely to be a few months away, anything is possible. However, the most likely cause of shortages will be people panic buying unnecessarily.
Only 20% of oil output comes via the Straights of Hormuz, and around half of that can be distributed via other methods, such as pipelines. Therefore the more likely impact, that we are already seeing, is price hikes rather than supply issues. I can recall several times in the past when there would have been no issues at all until stories started to circulate about potential shortages, which wasn’t true but the panic buying that ensued caused the shortages to happen!
I’ve took delivery of a Ford Kuga FHEV almost 3 weeks ago and can’t believe they want to ban these types of cars.
It’s early days for being a 100% accurate on MPG but so far I’m recording 42 MPG on very short journeys below 3 miles, 52 MPG on mixed Motorway, A roads and urban with journeys over 3 miles and an unbelievable 70 plus MPG when stuck in traffic jams. A full tank of 51 litres give a range of 500 to 600 miles.
As for the skirmish in the east as a 74 year old I’ve seen it all before, I’ve actually still got my petrol rationing book from the 70’s that thankfully was never need in the end but yes, it was same old war back then too.
I’ve took delivery of a Ford Kuga FHEV almost 3 weeks ago and can’t believe they want to ban these types of cars.
Most industry experts are saying exactly the same as you. Sadly, we are led by incompetents who think that by imposing targets they can force everyone into EVs, even though most people don’t want one and they aren’t cost effective or practical for those who cannot charge at home or at work. Reality will gradually kick in as the shortfall gap between ZEV mandates and reality widens (it’s already happening) and the goalposts will move. They will have no choice but to move them, but stubbornness and the fear of being accused of yet another U-turn will mean that they will put this off for as long as they can!
Give it 4 weeks and there will be shortages at the pumps as people panic buy.
High petrol prices for the long term am afraid.
Previous fuel shortages was simply supply and demand.
This time around it is different, they are taking out the energy infrastructure that takes years to rebuild. It is very very different this time.
I’ve took delivery of a Ford Kuga FHEV almost 3 weeks ago and can’t believe they want to ban these types of cars.
Most industry experts are saying exactly the same as you. Sadly, we are led by incompetents who think that by imposing targets they can force everyone into EVs, even though most people don’t want one and they aren’t cost effective or practical for those who cannot charge at home or at work. Reality will gradually kick in as the shortfall gap between ZEV mandates and reality widens (it’s already happening) and the goalposts will move. They will have no choice but to move them, but stubbornness and the fear of being accused of yet another U-turn will mean that they will put this off for as long as they can!
I expect Labour will hold out as long as possible before buckling and falling in line with the EU, allowing the continuation of new ICE cars being sold after 2035. Afterall, we are eachothers bigges’t markets!
This time around it is different, they are taking out the energy infrastructure that takes years to rebuild. It is very very different this time.
Well it certainly will be if Iran gets a few Nukes in their arsenal. Better to cut the cancer growth out now before it gets any worst.
Live 10 minutes ago
Live crude oil prices for WTI, Brent, Dubai and OPEC basket
WTI Crude $95.73
Brent Crude $110.21
Dubai Crude $122.84
OPEC Basket $135.06
I agree @kezo Sadly we are too small to be an outlier and this government says that they want to get us closer and closer to the EU, so it makes no sense whatsoever for us to be completely out of line.
Have those oil prices dropped? I haven’t really been studying them, but I thought that Brent Crude was up to around $120 a barrel.
I was trying to get my head around why petrol prices haven’t gone up by a lot more than they have, but the penny has just dropped. The actual cost of the fuel is less than half of what we pay at the pumps, the balance being government taxes, VAT etc. 🙄
There will be fuel shortages, there always are, long queues and people then join it, like always, defo won’t be different this time imo..
Fortunately at the moment I can run on off peak electric, we are away in early May with the touring caravan don’t fancy get tied up with a fuel shortage with 1500kg in tow.
Unfortunately I have suffered a brain injury and occasionally I get confused and often say the wrong thing.
2 things spring to mind
Most people will simply keep their car tanks full
I would hardly call that panic buying in fact I would call that a wise move imo
And by doing so it may enable them to be able to get to work and back for a couple of weeks longer
You can be sure if you don’t safe guard yourself then no one else will
In the present climate if for no other reason
I would think that it is a very sensible thing to do as it isn’t going to get cheaper going forward
just to add another thought
I suspect that in the next quarter and going forward we will see many cars pulled from the scheme and then reintroduced with Higher AP’s
Global events are fluid
And until the manufactures have been able to fully quantify and until they have future confidence
I suspect that trend will continue
I agree @kezo Sadly we are too small to be an outlier and this government says that they want to get us closer and closer to the EU, so it makes no sense whatsoever for us to be completely out of line. Have those oil prices dropped? I haven’t really been studying them, but I thought that Brent Crude was up to around $120 a barrel. I was trying to get my head around why petrol prices haven’t gone up by a lot more than they have, but the penny has just dropped. The actual cost of the fuel is less than half of what we pay at the pumps, the balance being government taxes, VAT etc.
I suspect that in the next quarter and going forward we will see many cars pulled from the scheme and then reintroduced with Higher AP’s
Perhaps you could ‘show your working’?
2 things spring to mind Most people will simply keep their car tanks full I would hardly call that panic buying in fact I would call that a wise move imo And by doing so it may enable them to be able to get to work and back for a couple of weeks longer You can be sure if you don’t safe guard yourself then no one else will In the present climate if for no other reason I would think that it is a very sensible thing to do as it isn’t going to get cheaper going forward just to add another thought I suspect that in the next quarter and going forward we will see many cars pulled from the scheme and then reintroduced with Higher AP’s Global events are fluid And until the manufactures have been able to fully quantify and until they have future confidence I suspect that trend will continue
You never know if there is a manufacturing shortages we may see lease extensions coming back.
Unfortunately I have suffered a brain injury and occasionally I get confused and often say the wrong thing.
I was thinking the same thing myself
Although only a supposition/suspicion as per my post
(@wmcforum )
Whilst I am no Einstein but simply using a dash of logic
When you look at the fact that trump often doubles down on his mistakes and will not quit especially when he can now continue to hide behind and mock all of those that turned up and served their country
But this time it looks like he has failed to hold all of the cards
“I digress”
Many things imo are sure to only get worse
Motorbility and car manufacturing can see this and imo will want to act asap and do what they can now rather than wait until they are fully impacted by the expected increased costs that this war will bring
How this war/vat/removal of lease extensions/ and so on will directly affect the scheme is anyone’s guess
I agree and also think it is very possible that lease extensions could be reintroduced if indeed the Iran war continues and you can be sure along with many other things that it will imo remain a consideration
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